Thank you to the many visitors and RSS subscribers to Going Mobile who have made the past year of publishing this newsletter a success.

Unfortunately, the current economic crisis that has forced Microsoft to eliminate jobs for the first time in its history has also affected me and forces me to bring the Going Mobile Newsletter to a close. I am currently on a 60-day internal job search that ends March 23. I am also looking outside the company. If you have enjoyed Going Mobile over the past year and have found value in it, please consider whether there is an opening in your company for a strategist/communications manager/product planner that I might be a match for.

The Going Mobile blog will remain open and active for a few weeks as I determine whether a future position makes it worthwhile to continue. I appreciate the many comments that I have received on this publication and wish you all well as you follow the news of the mobile communications industry.

Nathan Everett, Editor

Number 50, 19 January 2009

In this issue

• Mobile browsing the wave of the future
• An app store like you wanted it?
• Industry advances and idiocy
• Masthead

Mobile browsing the wave of the future

A report titled “Mobile Internet 2010” at ReportLinker projects rapid growth of mobile browsing and projects that the current one billion Internet users around the globe could be dwarfed by the amount of mobile Web surfers in just a few years. Emerging markets will play a key role in the growth of the mobile Web, and integrating location could potentially make it lucrative. In order for that potential to be achieved, the report said carriers need to boost their networks, and handset makers need to do a better job of incorporating Web services into a phone’s user interface.

Even with a large 3G footprint, users won’t rapidly use the mobile Web unless there is a clear design that adds value to the customer. It cites the T-Mobile G! and the HTC Touch Pro as examples of UIs that utilize an Internet connection for things like widgets and one-touch Internet icons. “The iPhone was the first mobile device with a good Web browser, and more such devices will follow,” said “Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt in an interview. “In a few years, mobile advertising will generate more revenue than advertising on the normal Web.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo128

As if responding to the report, Apple has given a green light to some new third-party Web browsing applications for the iPhone. Reviewers took this as a sign that Apple may be loosening restrictions that have so far blocked Web browsers save its own Safari from the iPhone. Some of the newly approved applications appear to be Safari plug-ins, rather than true alternative browsers, but at least one – iBlueAngel – does seem to be designed as a full-fledged Safari alternative. It’s based on the same open source WebKit code as Safari. http://tinyurl.com/gomo129

At the same time, Microsoft released version 4.0 of Windows Live Search Mobile for Windows Mobile 5 and 6. CNET Download Blog states that with this release, Microsoft is finally starting to catch up to other free clients doing mobile voice and text search on other platforms. Bird’s Eye View is the splashiest of the added features, adding a third mode to map-viewing that’s akin to Google’s Street View. These additions enhance Windows Live Search’s otherwise well-integrated features – click to call, SMS, driving directions, and search modules that focus on traffic, movies, gas stations, and weather in your area. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12a

An app store like you wanted it?

Andrew Shebanow didn’t imagine that asking for feedback about how Palm’s app store should work would open up a flood of input. He also didn’t expect the move would change his job description, but both have happened. Shebanow is working on a third-party application distribution system for Palm’s new operating system. He posted an item on his blog looking for input from developers on how that system should work. Within a week he had removed the post, replacing it with one saying that its popularity had caught him and Palm by surprise. “My boss has asked me to hid the post while management decides what they want me to do about it,” he wrote.

The result was that Shebanow was appointed to a new role in developer outreach and the open discussion was reinstated, receiving numerous accolades from developers. Many of the suggestions to the blog post recommend that the Palm app store feature improvements on the way Apple’s iPhone App Store works. While most were plausible and understandable, there were telling comments as well. Wrote one developer: “Anarchy! We want Anarcy. We don’t want anyone to tell us what or how we can do anything. The only rule is NO RULES. We want you to distribute our apps, but we don’t want to pay for it!!! Nothing, nada, zilch. And we want the ability to JAILBREAK! Wheeeeee!!!!!” http://tinyurl.com/gomo12b

Peter Tenereillo, owner/inventor of Trapster mobile software figures he knows how to make a successful mobile app. He’s learned a lot about what it takes to succeed in the world of mobile apps and says he wants to share those lessons with other struggling developers. Here’s a few of his high points.

• You need a critical mass of users – but you can’t get there if the iPhone is your only platform.
• Location-specific apps have to be very location-specific, or you risk the wrath of users.
• Market your butt off.
• You’re going to make enemies.

A key part of Tenereillo's strategy is to run on a variety of platforms; Trapster supports 10, including Symbian, Windows Mobile, and BlackBerry. After all, the installed base of the iPhone is measured in just the tens of millions, a fraction of mobile users worldwide. Competing products such as NMobile that run only on the iPhone have had even less success. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12c

Industry advances and idiocy

Sales of Motorola Inc.'s cell phones crumbled in the important holiday season, dropping more than 50% from the year-ago quarter and prompting the company Wednesday to announce it was eliminating another 4,000 jobs. Motorola is scrambling to stem losses in its flagship mobile devices division, which sold 19 million phones in the fourth quarter, down from 25.4 million in the third quarter and 40.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12d

U.S. patent firm Saxon Innovations has filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) seeking to block the import of handheld devices like smart phones, cell phones, and television remote controls that it feels infringe some of its 180 patents. A letter supplementing the complaint was filed on January 9, 2009. The complainants request that the ITC issue an exclusion order and cease and desist orders. The ITC has named Nokia, RIM, HTC, Palm, Panasonic, and AVC Networks as affected by the investigation – which has the power to block the imports of products made by these firms. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12e Maybe there is still hope for Motorola.

In a bizarre mix of Harry Potter, James Bond, and Star Trek, scientists have moved a step closer to creating a cloaking device that could hide objects from sight. Beyond possible military applications, it also might have a very practical use by making mobile communications clearer. “Cloaking technology could be used to make obstacles that impede communications signals ‘disappear,’” said David Smith of Duke University in North Carolina, who worked on the study published in the journal Science. He said the new material is easier to make and has a far greater bandwidth. It is made from a so-called metamaterial – an engineered, exotic substance with properties not seen in nature. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12f

Where are the billions of dollars that Microsoft has to invest when an industry could actually benefit from it and Microsoft could ensure its place in the next generation of wireless communications? We’re talking, of course, about the fact that a recession and the credit crunch could slow the rollout of WiMAX technology in the U.S. Last May some of the biggest names in the technology and media business combined forces to invest close to $12 billion in a new joint venture comprising Sprint, Clearwire, Intel, Google, Comcast, Warner Cable, and Bright House. Today, Clearwire is trying to keep its head above water. Sales are on track to rise 50% this year to $230 million, but analysts expet the company to lose $715 million. Billions more in losses are projected for the coming years as Clearwire invests heavily to roll out its network. Clearwire needs to raise billions in additional capital in the midst of the worst economic downturn in decades or slow down the pace of its rollout and give AT&T and Verizon Wireless a chance to gain ground in the race to build next-generation wireless networks. Given Microsoft’s stated commitment to mobile devices, cloud computing, search, and networking, the name of the software giant is glaringly absent from the Clearwire cadre. http://tinyurl.com/gomo130

Masthead

This is issue #50 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

In this issue

• CES attendance falls but prospects look up
• Devices at CES
• Masthead

CES attendance falls but prospects look up

In spite of the fact that attendance at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this year (110k) was down 20% from last year, the mood was generally upbeat and positive. Show sponsor CEA’s lead statisticians, Steve Koenig, director of industry analysis, and Shawn DuBravac,  CEA economist, reported that 10% of tech insiders polled said that tightening credit had a severe negative impact on their business while another 37% indicated at least a moderate negative impact.

While 2009 will remain a challenging year, with consumer spending in the negative percentile, the second and third quarters will likely see a spending lift driven by government stimuli.  And some of the beneficiaries of the lift, DuBravac added, would likely be the following CE growth categories, including: OLED display products (up 149 percent); e-readers (up 110 percent);  HD flash camcorders (up 106 percent); netbooks/subnotebooks (80 percent); communicating thermostats (up 71 percent);  next-gen DVD players (up 62 percent);  120Hz LCD TVs (up 57 percent);  traffic-compatible portable navigation (up 52 percent); MP3 players with wireless connectivity (up 41 percent); and combination home-theater-in-a-box/Blu-ray systems (up 30 percent). The 2009 CE sales outlook in unit growth for four categories in particular was in the positive ranks: digital displays (5.8 percent); wireless handsets (2.6 percent); PCs (5.1 percent); and game consoles (2.8 percent). http://tinyurl.com/gomo11a

While the global handset market went into a tailspin in the fourth quarter of ’08 resulting in a 5% year-over-year reduction in total shipments, analysts see that the losses are now being felt in 2G shipments while 3G handsets continue to show strong growth. “The number of WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile handsets sold (currently 39% of the total) is expected to exceed 50% in 2009,” says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Much of the brunt of the economic downturn will be experienced in the 2G categories. WCDMA handset shipments are projected to grow from 258 million in 2008 to 725 million in 2009. By 2013, more than 67% of all handsets shipped will be 3G/3G+ capable.”

“Another robust segment is smartphones,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “Smartphones captured 14% of the 2008 market and are expected to grow throughout the challenging period of 2009 and comprise 31% of the market by 2013.” Smartphones are among the most coveted pieces of prosumer electronics. http://tinyurl.com/gomo11b

Devices at CES

CES is always a great place to show off new devices, and Palm captured the imagination of everyone with their demonstration of the upcoming Palm Pre device and WebOS software. After demonstrating the device to a packed house, Palm’s stock vaulted upward 35%. The device is slated to launch on Sprint Nextel in the first half of ’09, which may impact Sprint’s numbers as well. The enthusiasm has not abated with Palm stock up since the announcement from $3.36 on Wednesday to $5.91 on Monday.

“Palm is differentiating itself by building a product that aggregates disparate information sources from all over the Web,” Avi Greengart at Current Analysis said. “It provides a unified calendar, unified contacts and unified instant messaging. It simplifies a Web-based life on a mobile OS.”

“There’s no question that a unified, integrated approach to Web applications is something consumers will want,” Greengart continued. “And that’s something that competitors ought to be doing. With Android, competitors might do this for themselves. But Palm will certainly hit the market first.” Despite “bits and pieces” of this approach offered by competitors, no one else “combines the integration not just of social networking but Exchange e-mail contacts as well, with a user interface that was clearly designed from the outset for a capacitive-touchscreen device,” Greengart said. “Some gestures enabled by WebOS are unique and some are familiar, such as pinch, zoom and swipe.” “The hardware is great,” Greengart added. “It feels wonderful in your hand. And when you slide out the QWERTY keyboard, it slides out and tilts up — that’s great, too. The keyboard, however, is not the best QWERTY keyboard I’ve used.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo11c Demo at: http://tinyurl.com/gomo11d

LG Shows off 'Dick Tracy' Wristwatch Phone

LG Electronics has shown off the first watch-style mobile phone that also comes with 3G Video Telephony service. This wearable phone is a follow-up to the prototype that LG introduced at CES 2008 and includes a number of upgrades, including a full touchscreen interface, 3G capabilities and video calling. Significantly, this watch phone will actually be available for purchase.

"Our new 3G Touch Watch Phone is stylish, sophisticated and the height of technology, but it’s also undeniably fun. How else can you reenact those scenes from your favorite sci-fi or spy movie?" said Dr. Skott Ahn, President and CEO of LG Electronics Mobile Communications Company. "The Watch Phone also demonstrates LG's technological leadership, proving that we can bring all the components in today's most advanced mobile phones down to a very small scale." The Watch Phone is the first touch watch phone in the world to feature 7.2 Mbps 3G HSDPA compatibility, enabling high-speed data transmission and video phone calls using the built-in camera. http://tinyurl.com/gomo11e

Another Walkman Phone from Sony Ericsson

­Another Walkman branded phone from Sony Ericsson - the W508, which comes with the trademark features such as Shake and Gesture control. The W508 also includes popular Walkman features such as SensMe, for matching your mood to the music and touch keys on top to play, stop and skip tracks. A 3.2 megapixel camera, HSDPA and 1GB M2 card completes the W508 offering. http://tinyurl.com/gomo11f

­Sony Ericsson also showed a new Cybershot mobile phone - the C510 Cyber-shot, its most affordable Cyber-shot phone to date, and an application upgrade to the C905 Cyber-shot phone. The C510 Cyber-shot comes with a 3.2 megapixel camera (described as "reliable", as if previous models were not?) along with Smile Shutter - a technology that detects a person's smile and immediately takes the photo. http://tinyurl.com/gomo120

HTC Brings S740 Smartphone To U.S.

With a svelte size and slide-out keyboard, this Windows Mobile smartphone is aimed at the message-heavy user. While touch-screen smartphones like Apple's iPhone 3G and Research In Motion's BlackBerry Storm are popular, many business users just want a slim handset that makes typing out messages easy and quick. With this is in mind, HTC is bringing its S740 smartphone to the United States, and its small size and powerful features could make it attractive for mobile professionals. Physically, the S740 bears a slight resemblance to the HTC Touch Pro, but the S740 isn't as wide and doesn't have a touch screen. At about 1.7 inches, the smartphone looks like a skinny remote control. The handset does have a bit of bulk to make room for the slide-out, four-row keyboard, but at 4.9 ounces it's not too heavy.

Powered by Windows Mobile 6.1, the handset is capable of receiving push corporate e-mail and instant messaging on the go. The S740 comes preloaded with Pocket Office, so users can view Word, Excel, Outlook, and PDF files on the handset. Even with its svelte size, the handset manages to pack in a 2.4-inch QVGA screen that has a 240-by-320 resolution. While not a media powerhouse, the S740 can play multiple audio and video formats. The handset also comes with a 3.2-megapixel camera that can be used to capture video. HTC did not say how much the handset would cost or if it would be subsidized by a carrier. It will be launched by the end of the first quarter through various retailers. http://tinyurl.com/gomo121

AT&T Mobility, Motorola launch Motorola Tundra VA76r - Quick Facts

Tuesday, AT&T Mobility LLC and Motorola Inc. introduced Motorola Tundra VA76r, a rugged 3G clamshell device with a tough exterior that can withstand harsh environments. AT&T Mobility is the wholly owned wireless subsidiary of AT&T Inc. According to the company, Tundra combines uncompromised call quality, optional workforce management tools, navigation capabilities, access to the web on 3G network and AT&T Mobility's Push To Talk service. The company noted that Tundra is designed to withstand the most strenuous conditions, meeting U.S. 810F Military Specifications for drop, dust, vibration, humidity, severe temperatures and rain. Further, Tundra features easy access to AT&T Navigator and enables advanced location and optional add- on enterprise tracking services such as TeleNav Track and Xora Mobile Workforce Management tools. http://tinyurl.com/gomo122

CES has never been the forum for Motorola to fully shine. The company often saves its big guns for larger wireless trade shows CTIA and GSMA Mobile World Congress. But in recent months, the company has cut a number of phones in development, and the showing at CES may be an indication of the scant number of products available through the first half of the year. For CES, Motorola unveiled the W233, a phone designed to attract the environmentally conscious. The device is made up of plastics made from recycled water bottles, and Motorola offset the energy used to manufacture, distribute and operate the phone by planting trees and investing in renewable energy sources. Deutsche Telekom AG's (DT) T-Mobile USA will sell the phone in later this quarter. The company used its experience making Nextel phones to create the Tundra for AT&T Inc. (T). The device is geared towards workers who need a durable phone and walkie-talkie function, and will compete against the core Nextel customer. It will retail for $200 with a two-year contract. The company does have one smartphone offering, a touchscreen device called Motosurf. The device uses Windows Mobile and can be controlled by a finger, stylus or track ball. Motorola said the device will hit the market later this quarter in multiple regions, including Asia and Latin America. The U.S., however, wasn't one mentioned. http://tinyurl.com/gomo123

Nokia releases three new phones to U.S. market

Nokia and T-Mobile announced three models for the U.S. market, including the 7510s, E63 and Nokia 1006. The Nokia 7510S weighs 124 grams, equipped with 2.2-inch 16.7 million color QVGA TFT display and a two megapixel camera. The device is based on the S40 platform with support for audio and video file playback, built-in FM radio, 27MB memory and supports 8GB of microSD card expansion. The E63 configuration of 2.4-inch QVGA screen with 16 million color display has Symbian 9.2 operating system and software platform for S60 V3.1, Business function is still relatively complete, and has a newly added a 3.5mm standard headphone jack. Nokia 1006 is a low-end CDMA mobile phones, used simple straight design, using 128 × 160 pixel screen with built-in FM radio function. http://tinyurl.com/gomo124

Samsung announces new devices

Samsung and T-Mobile are teaming up to offer a T-Mobile exclusive handset called the Samsung Behold. The handset is a touch screen device that offers premium multimedia features. The handset comes in brushed espresso or light rose finishes. Features include Samsung TouchWiz technology, a full HTML web browser, on-screen QWERTY keyboard, 5MP camera with video recording capability, 1GB of storage expandable to 16GB and Bluetooth. The screen is 3-inches and provides clear images. The handset weighs 4 ounces and measures 4.12" x 2.10" x 0.5". http://tinyurl.com/gomo125

Samsung also confirmed it is working on an Android handset for 2009. A glut of new companies have signed up to the Open Handset alliance, most wasting no time in getting new product out there. Samsung has confirmed it is working hard at developing an Android handset for a launch around June 2009. Right now, it's only been confirmed for a US network launch (Sprint and possibly T-Mobile), with a team of 80 developers working frantically to get the phone finished on time. The phone itself doesn't look too inspiring so far, said to be a new, but sleeker take on the existing Omnia. http://tinyurl.com/gomo126

HTC deals with leak of entire 2009 design line-up

This from www.wmexperts.com this morning: “Well this is going to take the wind out of HTC's sails a bit for whatever they were going to unveil at Mobile World Congress in a couple months.  See, images marked "DIYPDA.com" have cropped up – a full twenty five photos of upcoming HTC devices. We have the full gamut here, from the HTC Iolite (previously seen) to stuff we've been waiting for quite awhile, like the above HTC Mable, which looks to be the long-awaited 3G update to the Excalibur/T-Mobile Dash.  We have the Twin, Topaz, Rhodium, quite a lot.  There's everything from WinMo Standard Messaging devices to black slabs to sliders, and they all look good.  Darn near every carrier is represented too.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo127

Masthead

This is issue #49 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the last of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue has dealt with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. Next Monday we’re back on track with the current news and views that will feature MacWorld (ho hum) and CES (sigh). So, let’s start with what I consider to be the fifth top news story of 2008.

It’s the stupid economy!

That may not quite be a direct quote from the 1992 campaign of Bill Clinton and Al Gore, but the economic conditions facing President-elect Barack Obama are no less daunting than those left behind in 1992’s recession. When campaign strategist James Carville coined the phrase “The economy, stupid!” he could have been looking sixteen years into the future.

Only my real estate mortgage broker was forecasting the extent of the year’s economic collapse at the beginning of the year, which was appropriate since the real trigger came with the collapse of the mortgage industry and the banks it took down with it. But the signs were there and we can see them with perfect 20/20 hindsight. Motorola laying off 10,000, AT&T projecting 5000 layoffs, (http://tinyurl.com/6uojkd) Sprint establishing commodity-level voice and data service with the “All you can text, surf, browse, e-mail, chat, messenger, and talk program” at just $100 per month. http://tinyurl.com/9tmwkw It inspired rumors that T-Mobile would attempt a buyout of Sprint to prevent an all-out price war. The statistics that came in on year-end financials seemed to be holding strong, but by the end of the first quarter, device makers, operators, and software manufacturers were revising their numbers downward. At the first of March, Motorola CEO Greg Brown was adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward the coming recession citing the continued strong growth in the government sector as indicating it was temporary. http://tinyurl.com/a9577a

But when second quarter results came out, it was obvious that the rosy hue of the future was caused by red ink. The Wall Street Journal reported a drop in new phone sales during the first quarter in the U.S. for the first time in several years (http://tinyurl.com/6sk55g), even though global handset shipments were up 14% over a year ago. http://tinyurl.com/a9577a Microsoft reported that it was two million units shy of its 20 million unit sales projection for FY08 (ended June 30, 2008) even though second quarter global handset sales continued to rise at 15% year over year. The optimistic report from IDC report held out hope that the smart phone market was recession-proof. http://tinyurl.com/6e7ket But following an increase in global market share, Nokia set the stage by ordering a price-cut across its device line, sometimes as much as 10% on predictions that the growth rate of phone sales would decline. http://tinyurl.com/63vvjx

By October, as third quarter projections began coming in, Maynard Um, an analyst with UBS, halved his forecast for 2009 global handset growth to 3 percent, pointing to particular weakness in Europe and North America. Ehud Gelblum, an analyst with JPMorgan, was more optimistic but still reduced his expectations for 2009 handset growth to 6.1 percent from 8.1 percent. Gelblum said he had based his outlook on consumer reluctance to upgrade phones. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05a "All the vendors are struggling with a major slowdown in tech spending on both the business side and consumer side," said Bill Whyman, technology analyst at International Strategy & Investment. "Some companies are still trying to put a good face on things," he said, "but the reality is we are likely to have very, very weak spending in 2009. We believe that tech revenue growth will fall sharply over the next three to four quarters." http://tinyurl.com/gomo065

Fourth quarter and year end results have just begun to filter into view the past couple of days. ­The UK mobile market saw annual growth drop 0.3pp year on year to 4.4%, the second lowest figure ever recorded. In real terms, annual net additions stood at 3.15m, down slightly on the 3.21m recorded in the prior twelve months. Quarterly net additions totalled 0.97m, taking the total connection base to 74.07m and penetration to 121.5% at the end of Q3. http://tinyurl.com/8yleu6 ­ In spite of the phenomenal success of the iPhone as reported by Apple, Apple shares have lost more than half their value since the end of 2007, when they were trading at nearly $200. The stock finished Wednesday's trading session down $2.01, 2 percent, at $91.01. http://tinyurl.com/78cabx Quarterly net additions in the European mobile market moved to their highest level so far in 2008 in the third quarter, hitting 13.7m, after 9.8m and 11.0m in the first two quarters respectively. Proportionate growth followed suit, climbing to 1.8%, from 1.3% and 1.5% in the two prior periods. However, ­excepting the first two quarters of 2008 the net additions total was lower than any other result since Q2 04, whilst the proportionate growth figure was lower than any in history, which had the effect of pulling rolling annual customer growth down to a sixth successive low of 8.2%, down from 13.0% in the year to 30 September 2007. http://tinyurl.com/gomo117

So what does 2009 hold in store for us?

The first half of 2009 may see alarmingly slow handset sales worldwide and, even if the back half of the year improves markedly, all sources point to negative growth for the coming year. Forecasts for the magnitude of the anticipated slowdown, however, vary widely — a reflection, many say, of the speed and depth and unpredictability of the global, macro-economic downturn. The decline in global handset volumes is projected by most sources to exceed the 2001 downturn led by the bursting dot-com bubble. The cause: weakened consumer demand and so much inventory in the channel it may take two quarters to clear. Weakened demand in China, based on slowing exports, is oft-cited. Smartphone sales, which were roaring along at nearly 40% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of this year, will also slow. But according to most projections, they will show positive growth over the course of 2009. In the United States, carrier subsidies have given the sector a helping hand. The upshot: the strongest brands with the most alluring products may gain share as weakened competitors pull back in survival mode. http://tinyurl.com/gomo119

Due to a grim economic outlook and substantial currency fluctuations, the telecom services market will generate US$1.4 trillion in 2009, posting only 1% year-on-year growth compared with the 10-11% annual growth rates that have characterized previous years, according to a new report from Pyramid Research. The report also says that voice services will be hardest hit in 2009 while non-voice mobile applications and broadband Internet access are expected to remain robust. A contraction in the overall voice market of 3% in 2009 is projected, compared with a 6% expansion in 2008, while the data market, both fixed and mobile, will reach $411 billion in 2009, up 12% from 2008 levels. http://tinyurl.com/8yleu6

“The number of WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile handsets sold (currently 39% of the total) is expected to exceed 50% in 2009,” says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Much of the brunt of the economic downturn will be experienced in the 2G categories. WCDMA handset shipments are projected to grow from 258 million in 2008 to 725 million in 2009. By 2013, more than 67% of all handsets shipped will be 3G/3G+ capable.” “Another robust segment is smartphones,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “Smartphones captured 14% of the 2008 market and are expected to grow throughout the challenging period of 2009 and comprise 31% of the market by 2013.” Smartphones are among the most coveted pieces of prosumer electronics. http://tinyurl.com/gomo118

I’m scarcely as savvy a financial pundit as the analysts quoted here, so I’ll confine my comments to shear speculation on my part. Handsets will continue to drive market expansion and the major mobile operators will rise and fall based on the handsets they offer and the still-coming price war for services. Unfortunately, those consumers who wait until the second half of 2009 to get the latest, brightest, and shiniest devices will be sorely disappointed. Palm upset the delicate balance among the major smart phone vendors this week by showing a system that could reverse the flow of Sprint subscribers back into the fold. Today, with the conclusion of the acquisition of Alltel, Verizon Wireless reclaims the top spot among U.S. operators, but that just means it has the most to lose if Sprint is able to draw customers with an exclusive Palm arrangement. Devices in the second half of ’09 will be considered too little, too late.

The big winners among OS providers will be those that have one of two things going for them, and preferably both. First, deep pockets so they can simply hold on and wait for the larger global economy to recover. Second, the foresight to continue research and development into the future. The big losers will be the companies who “Me too!” themselves to death trying to catch up with the look and feel of devices that will be two years old or more by the time they hit the market. No matter how much internal improvement is made to devices this year, if there isn’t an external (industrial design and UI) WOW! the devices will be greeted with a ho-hum. In the way of devices, the ho-hums this year will include Apple (shot its wad a year and a half ago), Windows Mobile (still trying to look like Apple), and RIM (struggling to ride Obama’s coattails into the public’s love). Positioned to win big are Palm, Nokia, and Samsung. Networks: this year will see Sprint begin to turn the tide and reclaim its position near the top of U.S. carriers. Vodafone will continue to broaden its reach and attempt to stay the largest mobile operator by number of subscribers in the world by investing heavily in shares of emerging market carriers. China Mobile by sheer force of numbers will top out as the world’s largest carrier by any standard you want to apply.

Services will begin to make a big play this year. The Microsoft/Google battle will not be won on the merits of search engines alone, but by the services in the cloud that they get consumers to pay for. Microsoft will have to turn its left shoulder to its own operating system and embrace every type of converged device in order to capture the services market. As long as Microsoft services are seen as being “best on Windows Mobile,” people will assume that Google services are best on everything else.

And we have not seen the end of staff cuts that may reach even the strongest players in the market in all of the areas of mobile communications. Companies can almost always survive economic downturns if they are well-managed and have decent, well-priced products. That is not necessarily true for individuals. The first half of 2009 will continue to be gloomy. I’d like to say the last half will be looking up, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Monday

We’ll resume coverage of the events of the past week, especially focusing on CES and MacWorld. Inside Microsoft: If you would like to schedule a live presentation of the material in this week’s year in review, contact neverett@microsoft.com.

Masthead

This is issue #48 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

Number 47, 8 January 2009

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the fourth of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the fourth top news story of 2008.

Device makers: the living, the dying, the dead but not yet buried

So much fodder for this article that I had difficulty choosing the right targets. But, hands down, the near complete destruction of Motorola as a force in the handset industry had to lead the pack. Motorola started the year by announcing 2,500 more jobs to be cut, bringing the total to 10,000 jobs cut since January 2007. http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30318.php?source=newsletter, http://aweekinwireless.com/q/1puASeKi9gsA2/wv Analysts estimated another 5,000 redundancies would go during the year as Motorola posted a staggering $160 million loss for 2007. http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30625.php?source=newsletter Investment bank Nomura speculated that there would be another 5,000 job cuts in 2008. http://blog.telecoms.com/2008/04/18/thank-you-bochum/ By the third quarter, Motorola had slipped to fourth in worldwide smart phone market share from third a year ago as Apple rocketed into second place pushing both RIM and Motorola down on the list. Nokia also lost significant market share falling from 51.4% share to 38.9%. http://tinyurl.com/gomo088

Under pressure from corporate raider Carl Icahn, Motorola began restructuring the handset division, bringing the feature phone group and multi-media handset group into a single unit to streamline management in preparation for a spin-off of the handset business. . http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30621.php?source=newsletter, http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSN1724227020080418

In the second quarter, Motorola surprised analysts by posting a modest profit, but the third quarter returned to disastrous results. http://tinyurl.com/66my8f In November, new co-ceo Sanjay Jha broke the news that a complete turnaround for the company was unlikely until early 2010, and that it would delay its planned spin-off to the handset division in the hope that it can finally create products that will excite consumers. Said Sam Wilson, senior analyst at JMP Securities said, “We’re either witnessing a slow death here, or the darkest night before the dawn.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo075

The overall handset market and especially the lucrative smart phone market grew less rapidly in 2008, causing several manufacturers to issue cautionary warnings. A heavy market in touchscreen devices was predicted for the fourth quarter, but Nokia’s announcement that there was a weakening consumer market globally has dampened hopes that some of the anticipated devices would be released before the end of the year. http://tinyurl.com/gomo043 Nokia cut prices for many of its handsets in July, putting further pressure on its rivals’ already thin profits. Nokia made the steepest price reductions of up to 10% for selected music and media phones, while it made smaller cuts across the portfolio. Shares in Nokia fell on the news and were 2.2% lower. http://tinyurl.com/63vvjx

Carmi Levy, a telecom and mobile analyst, indicated he thought a Palm bankruptcy filing could be looming for the troubled smart phone maker if it doesn’t find a potential sale. http://tinyurl.com/gomo098

Apple, however, saw iPhone sales soar more than 320% to 4.7 million units, making the company the third biggest seller of smartphones and smartphone operating systems. http://tinyurl.com/69zwxm

In the midst of this, other long-time stable device manufacturers continued to advance their sales in the smart phone market. Award for the top pre-release marketing campaign has to go to Sony-Ericsson for the Xperia X1. If the trailer playing on the Sony Ericsson site was any clue, we could surmise that “Who is Johnny X?” was the story of an Xperia X1 that helps a man who has lost his memory. What? No retired executives or once-popular television comics? The trailer shows a dark, action-packed thriller and promised additional installments. http://tinyurl.com/gomo03a Sony is a master of product placement in movies, especially thrillers like James Bond. Quantum of Solace, like its predecessor Casino Royale showed Bond using Sony Ericsson phones, Sony laptops, and a Walkman. Just kidding about the Walkman.

Samsung also challenged Motorola in sale in the U.S. and for a brief time captured dominant market share. And let us not forget that LG is steadily forging into the smart phone space extending its line of media phones with its first Windows Mobile smart phone, the KS20. And of course, HTC just keeps churning out phones for itself and with brand names like Palm and HP. Having honed its business carefully, under the leadership of Cher Wang. http://tinyurl.com/gomo076

What delightful devices are in our future?

In spite of its struggles, Motorola continues to push new devices into the market hoping both to staunch the flow of its bleeding smart phone share and to replace the low-end and failing Razr line. Rumor has it that there is a new Motorola Q11 in the works as a possible successor to the Q9 series. http://tinyurl.com/95md4r The company announced three new devices at CES this week, including a phone made from recycled water bottles and a touchscreen device that it will release only in South America. http://tinyurl.com/gomo114 AT&T announced a new Motorola Tundra VA76r that meets U.S. 810F Military Specifications for drop, dust, vibration, humidity, severe temperatures, and rain. http://tinyurl.com/gomo113 If you were looking for a giant leap forward in innovation from Motorola this year, with the additional 400 job cuts it announced this week it is unlikely there is anyone left there who knows the meaning of the word or has the resources to execute on a vision. CoCEO Sanjay Jha promised more advanced cellphones using Windows Mobile and Android operating systems, nothing announced so far meets that lofty objective. My prediction: Carl Icahn will finally gain enough control over the board to force a sale of the handset division. With Samsung having already edged Motorola out for the top spot in U.S. sales, the likely buyer is LG who can’t afford to give Nokia that big an edge into the American market. Meanwhile, Motorola will continue to cripple itself with meaningless lawsuits over things like whether their former employees are intellectual property that cannot be hired by RIM. http://tinyurl.com/gomo116

Palm announced today that it will release a new device called the Palm Pre. Some say that is because you can only “pre” order it. Release date is vaguely stated as first half of ’09. The device combines a 480x320 touchscreen with a slide-out keyboard in the vertical direction. http://tinyurl.com/gomo115 Most significantly, however, is the new Palm Operating System called Web OS, designed to work with your finger. Well, now that makes venerable old Palm an iPhone wannabe. Actually I saw early prototypes of this UI at a conference two years ago. I was impressed by the fact that “the whole interface is designed with plain old HTML,” except that there were a number of additional tags and a rendering engine that were exclusive to Palm. The continuing question is whether the recent $100 million in funding and the new device and OS are enough to save Palm from oblivion, or to attract a buyer. My prediction: Little action on this as Palm continues to survive on its cash infusion and bring out the new device, banking on its strong relationship with Sprint to make it a success. The device screen is an ideal media surface and Sprint needs to push a media service to stay healthy. However, the ultimate goal for this year has to be to get some value out of the Palm name in a major acquisition. The most likely players are HTC, who could use a high-profile brand for their devices, and - believe it or not - Motorola, who could see the acquisition of the brand as a way to stiffen its portfolio with innovation that it no longer has on-board. Motorola has been seen as a potential suitor for Palm for several years now, and economic disaster may give birth to a desperate measure for both companies.

Nokia has never been the dominant player in the U.S., but with over 40% of the world-wide market, it is continuing to advance at record rates in emerging markets, especially those that are skipping the elementary infrastructure that marked U.S. and European industry development and going straight to 3G and even 4G infrastructure. I had the opportunity to see some “philosophical” research from Nokia at HCI Mobile in Amsterdam in September. While it did nothing to indicate where Nokia was actually going, it revealed a lot about Nokia’s innovative mindset. This is a company that takes emerging markets (not just China and India) seriously. And they take technological advances seriously enough to keep several thousand researchers busy. My prediction: Look for Nokia to leverage their new “complete” ownership of Symbian to move aggressively into markets that are just building out their infrastructure with truly converged devices that fulfill the role of all three screens in one device. They will claim the cell phone, computer, and TV market in one fell swoop in these nations.

LG is poised to move aggressively into the media phone and smart phone market in the U.S. They have their sights set on the failing Motorola market share in the U.S. and will do whatever is necessary to capture that upper end market. In order to do that, they will have to go head-to-head with Korean rival Samsung. Both companies have an advantage over Windows Mobile and RIM smart phones in that they already appeal to mass consumer markets where smart phone growth in the U.S. will be greatest. If you’ve been using a Samsung or LG phone for the past five years and want to upgrade, you’ll expect the same brand to have an equally good experience on a higher-end device. I believe that the U.S. smart phone market is theirs to lose.

HTC will continue to produce devices for their own line and for anyone else that needs a phone built for them. There will be a whole new line-up of HTC phones that use both the Android OS and Windows Mobile OS. HTC is the only device manufacturer that is not afraid to embrace either operating system where it is and make the best device on top of it. It won’t be waiting for the next big release before making a commitment. As a result, it will outpace all other manufacturers in device release on those two platforms and could influence the outcome of the race between them. With Cher Wang’s shrewd leadership, you can expect a savvy move into the winning camp. That also includes an advance into the next wave of devices. HTC has already released small-screen microcomputers with the Advantage. If they are reading the market correctly, they will come out with a lower cost converged WiFi/GSM netbook. Regardless of whether it runs on Windows Mobile or Android, they will partner with the dominant Web services provider to put together a device that will operate on any GSM system with full netbook services and a tiny footprint.

And finally, Sony Ericsson. No matter what device this company produces this year, it will be high on the cool factor and will have extraordinary product placement in a major motion picture. Sony Ericsson is the only company that is credibly positioned to compete with Apple on the “cool factor.” They may have a small market, and their devices may not even have the top consumer ratings, but they will have the best product placement and advertising programs in the industry.

As for Apple, I covered their future on Monday, so I won’t repeat myself here.

Tomorrow

It’s the stupid economy!

Masthead

This is issue #47 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the third of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the third top news story of 2008.

WiMAX (why not?) or LTE (Late to Emerge)?

WiMAX stands for Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, and in our context it is cited as a contender for 4G mobile communications with data rates as much as 2 to 12 Mbits/s depending on the distance and line-of-sight availability. Its chief competitor in the 4G space is Long Term Evolution (LTE), a CDMA spec still evolving with estimated first deployments out in the 2010-2012 timeframe.

I’ve been on the WiMAX bandwagon for two years now extolling its virtues over the still-to-be-stabilized LTE specification. Just so you know my earlier predictions, in 2006 I projected that by 2011 Sprint will either be the dominant mobile operator in the United States or it will no longer be a player in the market, and that Sprint and Clearwire would become a single entity to roll out mobile WiMAX. The first prediction has three more years to run, but imagine my vindication when Sprint and Clearwire revived their joint operating talks and merged Sprint’s Xohm-branded mobile WiMAX network with Clearwire’s fixed WiMAX network. The new Clearwire is owned 51% by Sprint and 27% by the former Clearwire run by entrepreneur Craig McCaw. The glue in the Sprint/Clearwire merger seemed to be the 22% that is owned by five other investors. Intel with a $billion investment in the new company. The remaining $2 billion cash infusion came from Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Google, and Bright House Networks. http://tinyurl.com/gomo10f, http://tinyurl.com/gomo110, http://tinyurl.com/gomo111, http://tinyurl.com/gomo112

If this had just been a renewal of Sprint and Clearwire’s earlier attempt to jointly develop the WiMAX network, it might not have made my top 5 list for the year. But the $12 billion deal, over half funded by Sprint, brought together a consortium of people who companies who can only benefit by a rapid rollout of the highspeed 4G network, to wit: one chip manufacturer, three cable companies, and a Web services company that also happens to have a new smartphone operating system on the market. This combination brings a lot more depth to the Clearwire initiative and may be what ensures its success.

The announcement of the merger was quickly followed by a protest to the FCC from AT&T. . http://tinyurl.com/6boyvy, or http://tinyurl.com/68cz7n, or http://tinyurl.com/636jbt The new venture will make it harder for AT&T and Verizon to pick apart the oft maligned Sprint/Nextel company which has lost millions of subscribers in 2008, but maintains its position as the third largest U.S. carrier. AT&T accused Clearwire of failing to reveal how much spectrum will be used in the 2.5 GHz bandwidth. In spite of AT&T and Verizon dominating the FCC auction for the 700 MHz bandwidth this year, Sprint/Nextel is still the largest holder of broadband mobile spectrum in the U.S. That means they can build out the complete 4G WiMAX network without affecting their 2.75G EV-DO Rev. A network. And in spite of a slip from Verizon Wireless Chief Technical Officer Dick Lynch that indicated Verizon would launch its 4G Long Term Extension (LTE) network this year, it seems unlikely that they will manage more than a test market. http://tinyurl.com/gomo102 The change-over from 3G GSM networks like AT&T (and beginning T-Mobile) is rife with infrastructure problems that Clearwire will not have with WiMAX. Even the conversion from Verizon’s 3G CDMA network will require complete changeovers in how their bandwidth is allocated and some of the infrastructure.

http://tinyurl.com/55owqg, http://tinyurl.com/5x6ufk, http://tinyurl.com/5sl24g, http://tinyurl.com/5kmbf3, http://tinyurl.com/42w54t, http://tinyurl.com/699ddq, http://tinyurl.com/6af8do

What comes this year?

We’ll see a full nationwide deployment of Clearwire Mobile WiMAX a good two years before either Verizon or AT&T can make a significant dent in the market with LTE. Three things will drive adoption for the technology.

1. Network availability. If there is one thing that we have shown repeatedly, it is that we are not willing to wait for something better. Even in a troubled economy, mobile communications has shown remarkable staying power, especially in the adoption of new equipment. While the expansion of the market has slowed, it is still expanding and the people who want speed will flock to the network pledging support for an open network, wholesale access, 6Mbps speeds, and good coverage that has received endorsement from Stanford University, the Catholic Television Network, Vonage, and the Wireless Communications Association.

2. Device availability. Nokia has already shown and announced its new N810 Internet Tablet with full WiMAX and CDMA support. http://tinyurl.com/gomo10a Sprint has indicated that it is expecting to deploy an Android-based phone this year. Since Google is a part of the Clearwire investment, it would be ridiculous to think that they would bring out a device for Sprint that was not WiMAX capable. http://tinyurl.com/gomo103 HTC has already premiered its first GSM/WiMAX handset in Russia for Scartel’s Yota network. http://tinyurl.com/gomo08d The key thing, however, is that Sprint has already invested heavily in bringing non-telephone devices onto its network and has set data pricing accordingly. Clearwire has set up the WiMAX mobile network in such a way that devices can run on one carrier for telephony and on Clearwire for data.

3. Open network availability. Both Verizon and Sprint have made big bets on opening their networks to non-owned devices. That means that devices with voice service on AT&T may also run on Clearwire WiMAX. However, more importantly it means that Intel backed devices like the coming flood of Mobile Internet Devices and Netbooks, will also run on the WiMAX network without having Sprint voice or messaging service. HTC may bring its GSM/WiMAX dual device released in Russia to the U.S. and release it without going through Sprint. And mobile M2M (machine to machine) devices that do not require human interface may also benefit from the open network. I predict that in three years, there will be WiMAX equipped automobiles that are as common as those with Bluetooth today. http://tinyurl.com/gomo062

Finally, even though Clearwire estimates 1.5 million subscribers by the end of 2009, 4.6 million by the end of 2010, and slowed growth to 31 million subscribers by the end of 2017, don’t expect that the U.S. will be the dominant player in the world WiMAX market. Many places that are just building out their mobile infrastructure are skipping over the first, second, and third generation mobile networks for their countries and are going directly to 4G WiMAX because it is a stable spec with lots of infrastructure builders ready to install. While some analysts have predicted that the over-saturated western markets will drive data consumption, I believe it is the data-hungry emerging markets that will drive WiMAX adoption around the world.

http://tinyurl.com/gomo10b, http://tinyurl.com/gomo10c, http://tinyurl.com/gomo10d, http://tinyurl.com/gomo10e

Tomorrow

Device makers: the living, the dying, the dead

Masthead

This is issue #46 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the second of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the second top news story of 2008.

We need another, new, different, fewer, simpler OS

The fictional pundit Robert X. Cringely looked into the future and saw no Windows Mobile. Cringely noted that mobile phones are showing a classic distribution toward three competing standards. He assumes that Apple will have the dominant share with Android a favorable second. Then it was a toss-up between RIM, Symbian, or “Door Number Three.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo07c From a legitimate analyst, "Microsoft is absolutely going to have to justify the cost (of its operating system)," said Avi Greengart, an analyst at technology research firm Current Analysis."It's going to have to either prove the value or potentially lower the licensing fees itself." http://tinyurl.com/4vseye

Nokia acquired the 52% of Symbian that it did not already own, promising to transform it into an open source platform with the backing of the Symbian Foundation, a group of companies that will cooperate in defining the product. Popular analysis paints this as a big win for the world’s largest handset maker, positioning them to effectively compete with Google Android, LiMo, Apple, and Microsoft’s Windows Mobile. Ben Wood, analyst with CCS Insight, sees the move as a shrewd response to growing threats from other providers of mobile phone software. "Over the last ten years, Symbian has grown into the dominant supplier of smartphone operating systems, but it's being challenged by a variety of new contenders," said Wood. CCS believes that the involvement of other companies on the Symbian Foundation's board offers an elegant way to keep other Symbian licensees committed to the platform. And ironically, the move might even make Microsoft's Windows Mobile and Google's Android look overly proprietary and dominated by a single player. http://wirelessfederation.com/news/seven-things-about-the-nokia-symbian-deal/

Cookie-monster Google released its Android operating system and the first device shipped from T-Mobile. Andy Rubin, Google’s Senior Director of Mobile Platforms and father of Android, said that while the number of mobiles globally now exceeds the number of cars, TVs, PCs and internet connections on the planet, the development of the full potential of mobile technology has been hampered by fragmented operating systems. He did not make it clear how introducing another OS would remedy that situation. http://tinyurl.com/5p7gtq Says Mike Dano of RCR Wireless, “…if there’s one thing I know, it’s that we need more mobile-phone operating systems in the wireless industry. Yes sir, it’s not enough to have Symbian and Windows Mobile. Throwing in BlackBerry OS, iPhone OS, Palm OS and LiMo’s Linux doesn’t satisfy my need. No sir, I need more, darn it!

“Thankfully, Google is here to scratch my itch. And if Google’s new Chrome Internet browser (released last week) is any indication, the Google Android cellphone operating system will be a stripped-down effort, with virtually nothing new or exciting, that is clearly intended as a placeholder for more advanced services and functions that may or may not be released at some point in the future. But I’m still very excited. Mainly because if a Web site can launch a mobile-phone operating system, then it’s obviously not that hard and I should probably give it a shot too.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo044

But device manufacturers and mobile operators seem to be looking at fewer operating systems if they can get away with it. While Windows Mobile chases iPhone experiences, Nokia has advanced in Microsoft’s home space, selling operating systems. AT&T hopes to standardize on a single operating system for AT&T-branded smart phones as part of a "dramatic consolidation" of its mobile platforms over the next few years, a company executive said at the Symbian Partner event in San Francisco.

The mobile operator believes smart phones will make up the largest portion of devices connecting to its network by about 2014, and it wants to avoid the fragmentation of platforms that has made it hard to develop mobile applications, said Roger Smith, director of next generation services, data product realization at AT&T. He said Symbian is "a very credible and likely candidate" to become that one operating system. http://tinyurl.com/gomo09c Oops! where did Apple go in that relationship?

Motorola Inc. settled on Windows Mobile and Android as handset platforms in an effort to simplify, focus on innovation, and manage costs underscored the unknowns involved in such choices, because leading OSs come with “patrons and politics,” with unknown implications, one analyst said. The future is anything but clear. “Operators recognize the value of ARPU improvements from harnessing Symbian, Windows Mobile and others, but these OSs come with their patrons and politics,” said analyst John Jackson at Yankee Group. The “Shakespearean tragic flaw” confronting handset vendors and operators alike, Jackson said, is that these OSs are largely being championed by parties intent on rivaling the operators for much of the resulting data revenue smartphones will drive. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07d

Could Palm be out of the picture completely? Carmi Levy, a telecom and mobile analyst, told InternetNews.com he thinks a Palm bankruptcy filing could be looming for the troubled smartphone maker if it doesn't find a potential sale. "HTC, which has strong engineering credentials but no brand, could benefit from having Palm's brand," Levy said. If Palm pushes forward for a turnaround Mawston believes it'll take more than just an innovative handset. "Palm lacks differentiation, it lacks the global scale of Nokia, the wow design of Apple, the operator-customization of HTC and the sticky e-mail service of Blackberry," Mawston said, adding that at the very least Palm needs to push out a flagship product pronto. http://tinyurl.com/gomo098

Mirror, mirror on the wall, what’s the system for us all?

A lot of announcements have been made regarding operating systems in the past year and it is up to this prognosticator to determine which ones are going to come true. Will there be a single dominant smartphone operating system emerging from the market? The magic mirror says “Forget about it.” There will continue to be Apple, Windows Mobile, Android, RIM, and Symbian, as well as the combined force of Linux Phone Standards (LiPS) and Mobile Linux Forum (LiMo). What will be different this year is that it will be harder to tell the systems apart. That’s good news for Nokia, who with half the smartphone OS market (Symbian) has the most to lose from hot new differentiated systems. But hot, new, and differentiated are not where the market will be made this year. All the OS sheep are chasing the same rainbow and it looks like multi-touch screens. Keyboards are the biggest advantage that the non-Apple devices have, and those OS manufacturers are rushing to abandon them.

RIM fired the most obvious salvo in the closing months of 2008 with the Blackberry Storm. It put its own twist on the technology with the hidden keyboard under the screen that clicks when you push it. Nearly every device manufacturer from HTC’s Touch Diamond to Sony Ericcson, to Nokia, have shown touchscreen phones with bigger screens, higher resolution, and worse battery life.

And as for Palm being out of the picture, it has recently received $100m in investment capital to roll out its new operating system and seems to be far from too late to have an impact. Expect it’s new OS and slide-out keyboard device to appear this week at CES. http://tinyurl.com/8xv44y

What will happen is the possible consolidation of operating systems, possibly through acquisition. RIM has shown its continued viability as a competitor in the market, increasing marketshare steadily. Microsoft was too enamored of YAHOO! to seriously consider an acquisition, but at its lowest stock price and highest marketshare in two years, it is a bargain waiting for Nokia to sweep in. RIM and Nokia share the model of owning the operating system and manufacturing the devices and it would be a natural fit to see action on that front. http://tinyurl.com/843guj. Even with the cash infusion, Palm appears a natural target for HTC to take over. HTC already manufactures the Palm devices and could use its own brand. The benefit of owning an operating system would be beneficial as well.

So, will there be fewer operating systems by the end of 2009 than at the end of 2008? Yes, by one or at most two. But the presence of those systems will still be felt as they enhance the portfolio of one or more of their competitors.

Tomorrow

WiMAX? (why not?) or LTE? (Late to Emerge?)

Masthead

Su

This is issue #45 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the first of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the top news story of 2009.

Extra! Extra! Apple invents 3G!

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9717097-1.html?tag=blogFeed

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-9964230-37.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121302962502757705.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/06/10/financial/f142249D00.DTL

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25102522/

Yes, recovering from the top criticism of the iPhone released in 2007 – releasing a high bandwidth phone that wasn’t 3G – Apple and AT&T made the release of the iPhone 3G sound like it was the first time that the new 3G technology was available, and that you needed an iPhone to take advantage of it. How quickly a year of criticism and two years of other 3G devices and networks disappeared! http://tinyurl.com/626z5d

And it was not only in the area of speed that Apple managed to convince the market that it was the first and only bet. The much touted iPhone 3G SDK was revealed and developers soiled themselves with excitement over finally having a “real developers’ environment.” Then the absolute icing on the cake was that there was an online store that applications could be sold through for a mere 50% fee to the beneficent fruit. http://tinyurl.com/5v4quz

Don’t think I hate Apple. I believe they released a revolutionary device in 2007 that captured the hearts of consumers who craved the touch of technology. It was hip and smart to have an iPhone. But this year’s story is all about putting the Apple name on existing technology, services, and operational systems and making them sound like new inventions exclusive to Apple. This positioned all new devices (even those released before the iPhone) as iPhone wannabes. And in fact, by the looks of it, the major device and OS makers of the world decided to let Apple have the lead by chasing it. The industry, like sheep, have followed the good Apple shepherd into the land of capacitive touch and in the next couple of years will achieve parity with the iPhone – of two years ago.

And that brings me to my predictions of

What will happen with the Apple iPhone this year?

There will be a new iPhone this summer in my opinion. Apple must accompany the end of its exclusive agreement with AT&T with something that will convince the other mobile operators that there is a reason to jump on the bandwagon this late in the game. I predict that this year, Apple will invent CDMA and will come out with a Verizon model. If Verizon is smart, it will insist that the new device is LTE compatible to go with Verizon’s already announced roll-out of an LTE network “sometime this year.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo102 T-Mobile in the US will probably also pick up the iPhone just because its European counterparts have it. Sprint? I doubt it. Even Apple doesn’t have the foresight to team up with the new Clearwire WiMAX mobile network and Sprint is skipping the intermediate upgrade to 3G to head straight to its 4G technology. http://tinyurl.com/gomo103

Steve Jobs has pretty well exposed Apple’s plan for the future. He quoted Babe Ruth as saying he only had one homerun, but kept hitting it over and over. http://tinyurl.com/gomo069 Apple development is pretty much like a Dan Brown novel. Once you’ve read “The DaVinci Code,” you know the plot for all his books. But they all sell because people love that plot and he writes it so well. People who bought one will buy all of them. People who start with the next great author are less likely to be so enamored of Brown.

So look at what Apple did with the iMac and with the iPod. They pretty much settled on a great industrial design, then continued to make annual changes that just tweaked it a little. In the future, we should see an iPhone Mini and an iPhone Nano. Yes, an iPhone without a touchscreen and an iPhone with no browser, just music, messaging, and phone. Other than that, the iPhone is the iPhone and is now dependent on better networks and new industry technology. http://tinyurl.com/gomo104

However, both Apple and RIM have made allusions to the iPhone and the Storm being very small netbooks. http://tinyurl.com/gomo109 That is an area that I would expect Apple to launch another revolution in. You should expect a netbook that has both WiFi and 3G connectivity, an incredible industrial design, and applications and services that are focused on Web 2.0. It will have a capacitive touchscreen and no keyboard, be extremely high-resolution in a wide-screen format that makes movies and music (from iTunes, of course) really pop. You’ll be able to share your iPhone settings with it over the air (OTA), but it won’t waste precious space with a DVD drive or a lot of ports. It will be high on RAM, but will have little (16-24Gb) of storage. It will be assumed that you get everything you need for the device OTA from, of course, “iNet” from which you will get all your music, video, and applications.

The biggest question upcoming is whether the mobile operators who are in the second tier of iPhone rollouts will see a big enough advantage in the partnership with Apple to give up customer control the way the first wave of carriers has. This will be the biggest sign that the walled garden is opening up. http://tinyurl.com/gomo048

Tomorrow

“What we need is a single good OS.”

Masthead

This is issue #44 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.