Thank you to the many visitors and RSS subscribers to Going Mobile who have made the past year of publishing this newsletter a success.

Unfortunately, the current economic crisis that has forced Microsoft to eliminate jobs for the first time in its history has also affected me and forces me to bring the Going Mobile Newsletter to a close. I am currently on a 60-day internal job search that ends March 23. I am also looking outside the company. If you have enjoyed Going Mobile over the past year and have found value in it, please consider whether there is an opening in your company for a strategist/communications manager/product planner that I might be a match for.

The Going Mobile blog will remain open and active for a few weeks as I determine whether a future position makes it worthwhile to continue. I appreciate the many comments that I have received on this publication and wish you all well as you follow the news of the mobile communications industry.

Nathan Everett, Editor

Number 50, 19 January 2009

In this issue

• Mobile browsing the wave of the future
• An app store like you wanted it?
• Industry advances and idiocy
• Masthead

Mobile browsing the wave of the future

A report titled “Mobile Internet 2010” at ReportLinker projects rapid growth of mobile browsing and projects that the current one billion Internet users around the globe could be dwarfed by the amount of mobile Web surfers in just a few years. Emerging markets will play a key role in the growth of the mobile Web, and integrating location could potentially make it lucrative. In order for that potential to be achieved, the report said carriers need to boost their networks, and handset makers need to do a better job of incorporating Web services into a phone’s user interface.

Even with a large 3G footprint, users won’t rapidly use the mobile Web unless there is a clear design that adds value to the customer. It cites the T-Mobile G! and the HTC Touch Pro as examples of UIs that utilize an Internet connection for things like widgets and one-touch Internet icons. “The iPhone was the first mobile device with a good Web browser, and more such devices will follow,” said “Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt in an interview. “In a few years, mobile advertising will generate more revenue than advertising on the normal Web.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo128

As if responding to the report, Apple has given a green light to some new third-party Web browsing applications for the iPhone. Reviewers took this as a sign that Apple may be loosening restrictions that have so far blocked Web browsers save its own Safari from the iPhone. Some of the newly approved applications appear to be Safari plug-ins, rather than true alternative browsers, but at least one – iBlueAngel – does seem to be designed as a full-fledged Safari alternative. It’s based on the same open source WebKit code as Safari. http://tinyurl.com/gomo129

At the same time, Microsoft released version 4.0 of Windows Live Search Mobile for Windows Mobile 5 and 6. CNET Download Blog states that with this release, Microsoft is finally starting to catch up to other free clients doing mobile voice and text search on other platforms. Bird’s Eye View is the splashiest of the added features, adding a third mode to map-viewing that’s akin to Google’s Street View. These additions enhance Windows Live Search’s otherwise well-integrated features – click to call, SMS, driving directions, and search modules that focus on traffic, movies, gas stations, and weather in your area. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12a

An app store like you wanted it?

Andrew Shebanow didn’t imagine that asking for feedback about how Palm’s app store should work would open up a flood of input. He also didn’t expect the move would change his job description, but both have happened. Shebanow is working on a third-party application distribution system for Palm’s new operating system. He posted an item on his blog looking for input from developers on how that system should work. Within a week he had removed the post, replacing it with one saying that its popularity had caught him and Palm by surprise. “My boss has asked me to hid the post while management decides what they want me to do about it,” he wrote.

The result was that Shebanow was appointed to a new role in developer outreach and the open discussion was reinstated, receiving numerous accolades from developers. Many of the suggestions to the blog post recommend that the Palm app store feature improvements on the way Apple’s iPhone App Store works. While most were plausible and understandable, there were telling comments as well. Wrote one developer: “Anarchy! We want Anarcy. We don’t want anyone to tell us what or how we can do anything. The only rule is NO RULES. We want you to distribute our apps, but we don’t want to pay for it!!! Nothing, nada, zilch. And we want the ability to JAILBREAK! Wheeeeee!!!!!” http://tinyurl.com/gomo12b

Peter Tenereillo, owner/inventor of Trapster mobile software figures he knows how to make a successful mobile app. He’s learned a lot about what it takes to succeed in the world of mobile apps and says he wants to share those lessons with other struggling developers. Here’s a few of his high points.

• You need a critical mass of users – but you can’t get there if the iPhone is your only platform.
• Location-specific apps have to be very location-specific, or you risk the wrath of users.
• Market your butt off.
• You’re going to make enemies.

A key part of Tenereillo's strategy is to run on a variety of platforms; Trapster supports 10, including Symbian, Windows Mobile, and BlackBerry. After all, the installed base of the iPhone is measured in just the tens of millions, a fraction of mobile users worldwide. Competing products such as NMobile that run only on the iPhone have had even less success. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12c

Industry advances and idiocy

Sales of Motorola Inc.'s cell phones crumbled in the important holiday season, dropping more than 50% from the year-ago quarter and prompting the company Wednesday to announce it was eliminating another 4,000 jobs. Motorola is scrambling to stem losses in its flagship mobile devices division, which sold 19 million phones in the fourth quarter, down from 25.4 million in the third quarter and 40.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12d

U.S. patent firm Saxon Innovations has filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) seeking to block the import of handheld devices like smart phones, cell phones, and television remote controls that it feels infringe some of its 180 patents. A letter supplementing the complaint was filed on January 9, 2009. The complainants request that the ITC issue an exclusion order and cease and desist orders. The ITC has named Nokia, RIM, HTC, Palm, Panasonic, and AVC Networks as affected by the investigation – which has the power to block the imports of products made by these firms. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12e Maybe there is still hope for Motorola.

In a bizarre mix of Harry Potter, James Bond, and Star Trek, scientists have moved a step closer to creating a cloaking device that could hide objects from sight. Beyond possible military applications, it also might have a very practical use by making mobile communications clearer. “Cloaking technology could be used to make obstacles that impede communications signals ‘disappear,’” said David Smith of Duke University in North Carolina, who worked on the study published in the journal Science. He said the new material is easier to make and has a far greater bandwidth. It is made from a so-called metamaterial – an engineered, exotic substance with properties not seen in nature. http://tinyurl.com/gomo12f

Where are the billions of dollars that Microsoft has to invest when an industry could actually benefit from it and Microsoft could ensure its place in the next generation of wireless communications? We’re talking, of course, about the fact that a recession and the credit crunch could slow the rollout of WiMAX technology in the U.S. Last May some of the biggest names in the technology and media business combined forces to invest close to $12 billion in a new joint venture comprising Sprint, Clearwire, Intel, Google, Comcast, Warner Cable, and Bright House. Today, Clearwire is trying to keep its head above water. Sales are on track to rise 50% this year to $230 million, but analysts expet the company to lose $715 million. Billions more in losses are projected for the coming years as Clearwire invests heavily to roll out its network. Clearwire needs to raise billions in additional capital in the midst of the worst economic downturn in decades or slow down the pace of its rollout and give AT&T and Verizon Wireless a chance to gain ground in the race to build next-generation wireless networks. Given Microsoft’s stated commitment to mobile devices, cloud computing, search, and networking, the name of the software giant is glaringly absent from the Clearwire cadre. http://tinyurl.com/gomo130

Masthead

This is issue #50 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

In this issue

• CES attendance falls but prospects look up
• Devices at CES
• Masthead

CES attendance falls but prospects look up

In spite of the fact that attendance at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this year (110k) was down 20% from last year, the mood was generally upbeat and positive. Show sponsor CEA’s lead statisticians, Steve Koenig, director of industry analysis, and Shawn DuBravac,  CEA economist, reported that 10% of tech insiders polled said that tightening credit had a severe negative impact on their business while another 37% indicated at least a moderate negative impact.

While 2009 will remain a challenging year, with consumer spending in the negative percentile, the second and third quarters will likely see a spending lift driven by government stimuli.  And some of the beneficiaries of the lift, DuBravac added, would likely be the following CE growth categories, including: OLED display products (up 149 percent); e-readers (up 110 percent);  HD flash camcorders (up 106 percent); netbooks/subnotebooks (80 percent); communicating thermostats (up 71 percent);  next-gen DVD players (up 62 percent);  120Hz LCD TVs (up 57 percent);  traffic-compatible portable navigation (up 52 percent); MP3 players with wireless connectivity (up 41 percent); and combination home-theater-in-a-box/Blu-ray systems (up 30 percent). The 2009 CE sales outlook in unit growth for four categories in particular was in the positive ranks: digital displays (5.8 percent); wireless handsets (2.6 percent); PCs (5.1 percent); and game consoles (2.8 percent). http://tinyurl.com/gomo11a

While the global handset market went into a tailspin in the fourth quarter of ’08 resulting in a 5% year-over-year reduction in total shipments, analysts see that the losses are now being felt in 2G shipments while 3G handsets continue to show strong growth. “The number of WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile handsets sold (currently 39% of the total) is expected to exceed 50% in 2009,” says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Much of the brunt of the economic downturn will be experienced in the 2G categories. WCDMA handset shipments are projected to grow from 258 million in 2008 to 725 million in 2009. By 2013, more than 67% of all handsets shipped will be 3G/3G+ capable.”

“Another robust segment is smartphones,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “Smartphones captured 14% of the 2008 market and are expected to grow throughout the challenging period of 2009 and comprise 31% of the market by 2013.” Smartphones are among the most coveted pieces of prosumer electronics. http://tinyurl.com/gomo11b

Devices at CES

CES is always a great place to show off new devices, and Palm captured the imagination of everyone with their demonstration of the upcoming Palm Pre device and WebOS software. After demonstrating the device to a packed house, Palm’s stock vaulted upward 35%. The device is slated to launch on Sprint Nextel in the first half of ’09, which may impact Sprint’s numbers as well. The enthusiasm has not abated with Palm stock up since the announcement from $3.36 on Wednesday to $5.91 on Monday.

“Palm is differentiating itself by building a product that aggregates disparate information sources from all over the Web,” Avi Greengart at Current Analysis said. “It provides a unified calendar, unified contacts and unified instant messaging. It simplifies a Web-based life on a mobile OS.”

“There’s no question that a unified, integrated approach to Web applications is something consumers will want,” Greengart continued. “And that’s something that competitors ought to be doing. With Android, competitors might do this for themselves. But Palm will certainly hit the market first.” Despite “bits and pieces” of this approach offered by competitors, no one else “combines the integration not just of social networking but Exchange e-mail contacts as well, with a user interface that was clearly designed from the outset for a capacitive-touchscreen device,” Greengart said. “Some gestures enabled by WebOS are unique and some are familiar, such as pinch, zoom and swipe.” “The hardware is great,” Greengart added. “It feels wonderful in your hand. And when you slide out the QWERTY keyboard, it slides out and tilts up — that’s great, too. The keyboard, however, is not the best QWERTY keyboard I’ve used.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo11c Demo at: http://tinyurl.com/gomo11d

LG Shows off 'Dick Tracy' Wristwatch Phone

LG Electronics has shown off the first watch-style mobile phone that also comes with 3G Video Telephony service. This wearable phone is a follow-up to the prototype that LG introduced at CES 2008 and includes a number of upgrades, including a full touchscreen interface, 3G capabilities and video calling. Significantly, this watch phone will actually be available for purchase.

"Our new 3G Touch Watch Phone is stylish, sophisticated and the height of technology, but it’s also undeniably fun. How else can you reenact those scenes from your favorite sci-fi or spy movie?" said Dr. Skott Ahn, President and CEO of LG Electronics Mobile Communications Company. "The Watch Phone also demonstrates LG's technological leadership, proving that we can bring all the components in today's most advanced mobile phones down to a very small scale." The Watch Phone is the first touch watch phone in the world to feature 7.2 Mbps 3G HSDPA compatibility, enabling high-speed data transmission and video phone calls using the built-in camera. http://tinyurl.com/gomo11e

Another Walkman Phone from Sony Ericsson

­Another Walkman branded phone from Sony Ericsson - the W508, which comes with the trademark features such as Shake and Gesture control. The W508 also includes popular Walkman features such as SensMe, for matching your mood to the music and touch keys on top to play, stop and skip tracks. A 3.2 megapixel camera, HSDPA and 1GB M2 card completes the W508 offering. http://tinyurl.com/gomo11f

­Sony Ericsson also showed a new Cybershot mobile phone - the C510 Cyber-shot, its most affordable Cyber-shot phone to date, and an application upgrade to the C905 Cyber-shot phone. The C510 Cyber-shot comes with a 3.2 megapixel camera (described as "reliable", as if previous models were not?) along with Smile Shutter - a technology that detects a person's smile and immediately takes the photo. http://tinyurl.com/gomo120

HTC Brings S740 Smartphone To U.S.

With a svelte size and slide-out keyboard, this Windows Mobile smartphone is aimed at the message-heavy user. While touch-screen smartphones like Apple's iPhone 3G and Research In Motion's BlackBerry Storm are popular, many business users just want a slim handset that makes typing out messages easy and quick. With this is in mind, HTC is bringing its S740 smartphone to the United States, and its small size and powerful features could make it attractive for mobile professionals. Physically, the S740 bears a slight resemblance to the HTC Touch Pro, but the S740 isn't as wide and doesn't have a touch screen. At about 1.7 inches, the smartphone looks like a skinny remote control. The handset does have a bit of bulk to make room for the slide-out, four-row keyboard, but at 4.9 ounces it's not too heavy.

Powered by Windows Mobile 6.1, the handset is capable of receiving push corporate e-mail and instant messaging on the go. The S740 comes preloaded with Pocket Office, so users can view Word, Excel, Outlook, and PDF files on the handset. Even with its svelte size, the handset manages to pack in a 2.4-inch QVGA screen that has a 240-by-320 resolution. While not a media powerhouse, the S740 can play multiple audio and video formats. The handset also comes with a 3.2-megapixel camera that can be used to capture video. HTC did not say how much the handset would cost or if it would be subsidized by a carrier. It will be launched by the end of the first quarter through various retailers. http://tinyurl.com/gomo121

AT&T Mobility, Motorola launch Motorola Tundra VA76r - Quick Facts

Tuesday, AT&T Mobility LLC and Motorola Inc. introduced Motorola Tundra VA76r, a rugged 3G clamshell device with a tough exterior that can withstand harsh environments. AT&T Mobility is the wholly owned wireless subsidiary of AT&T Inc. According to the company, Tundra combines uncompromised call quality, optional workforce management tools, navigation capabilities, access to the web on 3G network and AT&T Mobility's Push To Talk service. The company noted that Tundra is designed to withstand the most strenuous conditions, meeting U.S. 810F Military Specifications for drop, dust, vibration, humidity, severe temperatures and rain. Further, Tundra features easy access to AT&T Navigator and enables advanced location and optional add- on enterprise tracking services such as TeleNav Track and Xora Mobile Workforce Management tools. http://tinyurl.com/gomo122

CES has never been the forum for Motorola to fully shine. The company often saves its big guns for larger wireless trade shows CTIA and GSMA Mobile World Congress. But in recent months, the company has cut a number of phones in development, and the showing at CES may be an indication of the scant number of products available through the first half of the year. For CES, Motorola unveiled the W233, a phone designed to attract the environmentally conscious. The device is made up of plastics made from recycled water bottles, and Motorola offset the energy used to manufacture, distribute and operate the phone by planting trees and investing in renewable energy sources. Deutsche Telekom AG's (DT) T-Mobile USA will sell the phone in later this quarter. The company used its experience making Nextel phones to create the Tundra for AT&T Inc. (T). The device is geared towards workers who need a durable phone and walkie-talkie function, and will compete against the core Nextel customer. It will retail for $200 with a two-year contract. The company does have one smartphone offering, a touchscreen device called Motosurf. The device uses Windows Mobile and can be controlled by a finger, stylus or track ball. Motorola said the device will hit the market later this quarter in multiple regions, including Asia and Latin America. The U.S., however, wasn't one mentioned. http://tinyurl.com/gomo123

Nokia releases three new phones to U.S. market

Nokia and T-Mobile announced three models for the U.S. market, including the 7510s, E63 and Nokia 1006. The Nokia 7510S weighs 124 grams, equipped with 2.2-inch 16.7 million color QVGA TFT display and a two megapixel camera. The device is based on the S40 platform with support for audio and video file playback, built-in FM radio, 27MB memory and supports 8GB of microSD card expansion. The E63 configuration of 2.4-inch QVGA screen with 16 million color display has Symbian 9.2 operating system and software platform for S60 V3.1, Business function is still relatively complete, and has a newly added a 3.5mm standard headphone jack. Nokia 1006 is a low-end CDMA mobile phones, used simple straight design, using 128 × 160 pixel screen with built-in FM radio function. http://tinyurl.com/gomo124

Samsung announces new devices

Samsung and T-Mobile are teaming up to offer a T-Mobile exclusive handset called the Samsung Behold. The handset is a touch screen device that offers premium multimedia features. The handset comes in brushed espresso or light rose finishes. Features include Samsung TouchWiz technology, a full HTML web browser, on-screen QWERTY keyboard, 5MP camera with video recording capability, 1GB of storage expandable to 16GB and Bluetooth. The screen is 3-inches and provides clear images. The handset weighs 4 ounces and measures 4.12" x 2.10" x 0.5". http://tinyurl.com/gomo125

Samsung also confirmed it is working on an Android handset for 2009. A glut of new companies have signed up to the Open Handset alliance, most wasting no time in getting new product out there. Samsung has confirmed it is working hard at developing an Android handset for a launch around June 2009. Right now, it's only been confirmed for a US network launch (Sprint and possibly T-Mobile), with a team of 80 developers working frantically to get the phone finished on time. The phone itself doesn't look too inspiring so far, said to be a new, but sleeker take on the existing Omnia. http://tinyurl.com/gomo126

HTC deals with leak of entire 2009 design line-up

This from www.wmexperts.com this morning: “Well this is going to take the wind out of HTC's sails a bit for whatever they were going to unveil at Mobile World Congress in a couple months.  See, images marked "DIYPDA.com" have cropped up – a full twenty five photos of upcoming HTC devices. We have the full gamut here, from the HTC Iolite (previously seen) to stuff we've been waiting for quite awhile, like the above HTC Mable, which looks to be the long-awaited 3G update to the Excalibur/T-Mobile Dash.  We have the Twin, Topaz, Rhodium, quite a lot.  There's everything from WinMo Standard Messaging devices to black slabs to sliders, and they all look good.  Darn near every carrier is represented too.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo127

Masthead

This is issue #49 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the last of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue has dealt with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. Next Monday we’re back on track with the current news and views that will feature MacWorld (ho hum) and CES (sigh). So, let’s start with what I consider to be the fifth top news story of 2008.

It’s the stupid economy!

That may not quite be a direct quote from the 1992 campaign of Bill Clinton and Al Gore, but the economic conditions facing President-elect Barack Obama are no less daunting than those left behind in 1992’s recession. When campaign strategist James Carville coined the phrase “The economy, stupid!” he could have been looking sixteen years into the future.

Only my real estate mortgage broker was forecasting the extent of the year’s economic collapse at the beginning of the year, which was appropriate since the real trigger came with the collapse of the mortgage industry and the banks it took down with it. But the signs were there and we can see them with perfect 20/20 hindsight. Motorola laying off 10,000, AT&T projecting 5000 layoffs, (http://tinyurl.com/6uojkd) Sprint establishing commodity-level voice and data service with the “All you can text, surf, browse, e-mail, chat, messenger, and talk program” at just $100 per month. http://tinyurl.com/9tmwkw It inspired rumors that T-Mobile would attempt a buyout of Sprint to prevent an all-out price war. The statistics that came in on year-end financials seemed to be holding strong, but by the end of the first quarter, device makers, operators, and software manufacturers were revising their numbers downward. At the first of March, Motorola CEO Greg Brown was adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward the coming recession citing the continued strong growth in the government sector as indicating it was temporary. http://tinyurl.com/a9577a

But when second quarter results came out, it was obvious that the rosy hue of the future was caused by red ink. The Wall Street Journal reported a drop in new phone sales during the first quarter in the U.S. for the first time in several years (http://tinyurl.com/6sk55g), even though global handset shipments were up 14% over a year ago. http://tinyurl.com/a9577a Microsoft reported that it was two million units shy of its 20 million unit sales projection for FY08 (ended June 30, 2008) even though second quarter global handset sales continued to rise at 15% year over year. The optimistic report from IDC report held out hope that the smart phone market was recession-proof. http://tinyurl.com/6e7ket But following an increase in global market share, Nokia set the stage by ordering a price-cut across its device line, sometimes as much as 10% on predictions that the growth rate of phone sales would decline. http://tinyurl.com/63vvjx

By October, as third quarter projections began coming in, Maynard Um, an analyst with UBS, halved his forecast for 2009 global handset growth to 3 percent, pointing to particular weakness in Europe and North America. Ehud Gelblum, an analyst with JPMorgan, was more optimistic but still reduced his expectations for 2009 handset growth to 6.1 percent from 8.1 percent. Gelblum said he had based his outlook on consumer reluctance to upgrade phones. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05a "All the vendors are struggling with a major slowdown in tech spending on both the business side and consumer side," said Bill Whyman, technology analyst at International Strategy & Investment. "Some companies are still trying to put a good face on things," he said, "but the reality is we are likely to have very, very weak spending in 2009. We believe that tech revenue growth will fall sharply over the next three to four quarters." http://tinyurl.com/gomo065

Fourth quarter and year end results have just begun to filter into view the past couple of days. ­The UK mobile market saw annual growth drop 0.3pp year on year to 4.4%, the second lowest figure ever recorded. In real terms, annual net additions stood at 3.15m, down slightly on the 3.21m recorded in the prior twelve months. Quarterly net additions totalled 0.97m, taking the total connection base to 74.07m and penetration to 121.5% at the end of Q3. http://tinyurl.com/8yleu6 ­ In spite of the phenomenal success of the iPhone as reported by Apple, Apple shares have lost more than half their value since the end of 2007, when they were trading at nearly $200. The stock finished Wednesday's trading session down $2.01, 2 percent, at $91.01. http://tinyurl.com/78cabx Quarterly net additions in the European mobile market moved to their highest level so far in 2008 in the third quarter, hitting 13.7m, after 9.8m and 11.0m in the first two quarters respectively. Proportionate growth followed suit, climbing to 1.8%, from 1.3% and 1.5% in the two prior periods. However, ­excepting the first two quarters of 2008 the net additions total was lower than any other result since Q2 04, whilst the proportionate growth figure was lower than any in history, which had the effect of pulling rolling annual customer growth down to a sixth successive low of 8.2%, down from 13.0% in the year to 30 September 2007. http://tinyurl.com/gomo117

So what does 2009 hold in store for us?

The first half of 2009 may see alarmingly slow handset sales worldwide and, even if the back half of the year improves markedly, all sources point to negative growth for the coming year. Forecasts for the magnitude of the anticipated slowdown, however, vary widely — a reflection, many say, of the speed and depth and unpredictability of the global, macro-economic downturn. The decline in global handset volumes is projected by most sources to exceed the 2001 downturn led by the bursting dot-com bubble. The cause: weakened consumer demand and so much inventory in the channel it may take two quarters to clear. Weakened demand in China, based on slowing exports, is oft-cited. Smartphone sales, which were roaring along at nearly 40% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of this year, will also slow. But according to most projections, they will show positive growth over the course of 2009. In the United States, carrier subsidies have given the sector a helping hand. The upshot: the strongest brands with the most alluring products may gain share as weakened competitors pull back in survival mode. http://tinyurl.com/gomo119

Due to a grim economic outlook and substantial currency fluctuations, the telecom services market will generate US$1.4 trillion in 2009, posting only 1% year-on-year growth compared with the 10-11% annual growth rates that have characterized previous years, according to a new report from Pyramid Research. The report also says that voice services will be hardest hit in 2009 while non-voice mobile applications and broadband Internet access are expected to remain robust. A contraction in the overall voice market of 3% in 2009 is projected, compared with a 6% expansion in 2008, while the data market, both fixed and mobile, will reach $411 billion in 2009, up 12% from 2008 levels. http://tinyurl.com/8yleu6

“The number of WCDMA and CDMA2000 mobile handsets sold (currently 39% of the total) is expected to exceed 50% in 2009,” says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Much of the brunt of the economic downturn will be experienced in the 2G categories. WCDMA handset shipments are projected to grow from 258 million in 2008 to 725 million in 2009. By 2013, more than 67% of all handsets shipped will be 3G/3G+ capable.” “Another robust segment is smartphones,” adds practice director Kevin Burden. “Smartphones captured 14% of the 2008 market and are expected to grow throughout the challenging period of 2009 and comprise 31% of the market by 2013.” Smartphones are among the most coveted pieces of prosumer electronics. http://tinyurl.com/gomo118

I’m scarcely as savvy a financial pundit as the analysts quoted here, so I’ll confine my comments to shear speculation on my part. Handsets will continue to drive market expansion and the major mobile operators will rise and fall based on the handsets they offer and the still-coming price war for services. Unfortunately, those consumers who wait until the second half of 2009 to get the latest, brightest, and shiniest devices will be sorely disappointed. Palm upset the delicate balance among the major smart phone vendors this week by showing a system that could reverse the flow of Sprint subscribers back into the fold. Today, with the conclusion of the acquisition of Alltel, Verizon Wireless reclaims the top spot among U.S. operators, but that just means it has the most to lose if Sprint is able to draw customers with an exclusive Palm arrangement. Devices in the second half of ’09 will be considered too little, too late.

The big winners among OS providers will be those that have one of two things going for them, and preferably both. First, deep pockets so they can simply hold on and wait for the larger global economy to recover. Second, the foresight to continue research and development into the future. The big losers will be the companies who “Me too!” themselves to death trying to catch up with the look and feel of devices that will be two years old or more by the time they hit the market. No matter how much internal improvement is made to devices this year, if there isn’t an external (industrial design and UI) WOW! the devices will be greeted with a ho-hum. In the way of devices, the ho-hums this year will include Apple (shot its wad a year and a half ago), Windows Mobile (still trying to look like Apple), and RIM (struggling to ride Obama’s coattails into the public’s love). Positioned to win big are Palm, Nokia, and Samsung. Networks: this year will see Sprint begin to turn the tide and reclaim its position near the top of U.S. carriers. Vodafone will continue to broaden its reach and attempt to stay the largest mobile operator by number of subscribers in the world by investing heavily in shares of emerging market carriers. China Mobile by sheer force of numbers will top out as the world’s largest carrier by any standard you want to apply.

Services will begin to make a big play this year. The Microsoft/Google battle will not be won on the merits of search engines alone, but by the services in the cloud that they get consumers to pay for. Microsoft will have to turn its left shoulder to its own operating system and embrace every type of converged device in order to capture the services market. As long as Microsoft services are seen as being “best on Windows Mobile,” people will assume that Google services are best on everything else.

And we have not seen the end of staff cuts that may reach even the strongest players in the market in all of the areas of mobile communications. Companies can almost always survive economic downturns if they are well-managed and have decent, well-priced products. That is not necessarily true for individuals. The first half of 2009 will continue to be gloomy. I’d like to say the last half will be looking up, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Monday

We’ll resume coverage of the events of the past week, especially focusing on CES and MacWorld. Inside Microsoft: If you would like to schedule a live presentation of the material in this week’s year in review, contact neverett@microsoft.com.

Masthead

This is issue #48 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

Number 47, 8 January 2009

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the fourth of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the fourth top news story of 2008.

Device makers: the living, the dying, the dead but not yet buried

So much fodder for this article that I had difficulty choosing the right targets. But, hands down, the near complete destruction of Motorola as a force in the handset industry had to lead the pack. Motorola started the year by announcing 2,500 more jobs to be cut, bringing the total to 10,000 jobs cut since January 2007. http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30318.php?source=newsletter, http://aweekinwireless.com/q/1puASeKi9gsA2/wv Analysts estimated another 5,000 redundancies would go during the year as Motorola posted a staggering $160 million loss for 2007. http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30625.php?source=newsletter Investment bank Nomura speculated that there would be another 5,000 job cuts in 2008. http://blog.telecoms.com/2008/04/18/thank-you-bochum/ By the third quarter, Motorola had slipped to fourth in worldwide smart phone market share from third a year ago as Apple rocketed into second place pushing both RIM and Motorola down on the list. Nokia also lost significant market share falling from 51.4% share to 38.9%. http://tinyurl.com/gomo088

Under pressure from corporate raider Carl Icahn, Motorola began restructuring the handset division, bringing the feature phone group and multi-media handset group into a single unit to streamline management in preparation for a spin-off of the handset business. . http://www.cellular-news.com/story/30621.php?source=newsletter, http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSN1724227020080418

In the second quarter, Motorola surprised analysts by posting a modest profit, but the third quarter returned to disastrous results. http://tinyurl.com/66my8f In November, new co-ceo Sanjay Jha broke the news that a complete turnaround for the company was unlikely until early 2010, and that it would delay its planned spin-off to the handset division in the hope that it can finally create products that will excite consumers. Said Sam Wilson, senior analyst at JMP Securities said, “We’re either witnessing a slow death here, or the darkest night before the dawn.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo075

The overall handset market and especially the lucrative smart phone market grew less rapidly in 2008, causing several manufacturers to issue cautionary warnings. A heavy market in touchscreen devices was predicted for the fourth quarter, but Nokia’s announcement that there was a weakening consumer market globally has dampened hopes that some of the anticipated devices would be released before the end of the year. http://tinyurl.com/gomo043 Nokia cut prices for many of its handsets in July, putting further pressure on its rivals’ already thin profits. Nokia made the steepest price reductions of up to 10% for selected music and media phones, while it made smaller cuts across the portfolio. Shares in Nokia fell on the news and were 2.2% lower. http://tinyurl.com/63vvjx

Carmi Levy, a telecom and mobile analyst, indicated he thought a Palm bankruptcy filing could be looming for the troubled smart phone maker if it doesn’t find a potential sale. http://tinyurl.com/gomo098

Apple, however, saw iPhone sales soar more than 320% to 4.7 million units, making the company the third biggest seller of smartphones and smartphone operating systems. http://tinyurl.com/69zwxm

In the midst of this, other long-time stable device manufacturers continued to advance their sales in the smart phone market. Award for the top pre-release marketing campaign has to go to Sony-Ericsson for the Xperia X1. If the trailer playing on the Sony Ericsson site was any clue, we could surmise that “Who is Johnny X?” was the story of an Xperia X1 that helps a man who has lost his memory. What? No retired executives or once-popular television comics? The trailer shows a dark, action-packed thriller and promised additional installments. http://tinyurl.com/gomo03a Sony is a master of product placement in movies, especially thrillers like James Bond. Quantum of Solace, like its predecessor Casino Royale showed Bond using Sony Ericsson phones, Sony laptops, and a Walkman. Just kidding about the Walkman.

Samsung also challenged Motorola in sale in the U.S. and for a brief time captured dominant market share. And let us not forget that LG is steadily forging into the smart phone space extending its line of media phones with its first Windows Mobile smart phone, the KS20. And of course, HTC just keeps churning out phones for itself and with brand names like Palm and HP. Having honed its business carefully, under the leadership of Cher Wang. http://tinyurl.com/gomo076

What delightful devices are in our future?

In spite of its struggles, Motorola continues to push new devices into the market hoping both to staunch the flow of its bleeding smart phone share and to replace the low-end and failing Razr line. Rumor has it that there is a new Motorola Q11 in the works as a possible successor to the Q9 series. http://tinyurl.com/95md4r The company announced three new devices at CES this week, including a phone made from recycled water bottles and a touchscreen device that it will release only in South America. http://tinyurl.com/gomo114 AT&T announced a new Motorola Tundra VA76r that meets U.S. 810F Military Specifications for drop, dust, vibration, humidity, severe temperatures, and rain. http://tinyurl.com/gomo113 If you were looking for a giant leap forward in innovation from Motorola this year, with the additional 400 job cuts it announced this week it is unlikely there is anyone left there who knows the meaning of the word or has the resources to execute on a vision. CoCEO Sanjay Jha promised more advanced cellphones using Windows Mobile and Android operating systems, nothing announced so far meets that lofty objective. My prediction: Carl Icahn will finally gain enough control over the board to force a sale of the handset division. With Samsung having already edged Motorola out for the top spot in U.S. sales, the likely buyer is LG who can’t afford to give Nokia that big an edge into the American market. Meanwhile, Motorola will continue to cripple itself with meaningless lawsuits over things like whether their former employees are intellectual property that cannot be hired by RIM. http://tinyurl.com/gomo116

Palm announced today that it will release a new device called the Palm Pre. Some say that is because you can only “pre” order it. Release date is vaguely stated as first half of ’09. The device combines a 480x320 touchscreen with a slide-out keyboard in the vertical direction. http://tinyurl.com/gomo115 Most significantly, however, is the new Palm Operating System called Web OS, designed to work with your finger. Well, now that makes venerable old Palm an iPhone wannabe. Actually I saw early prototypes of this UI at a conference two years ago. I was impressed by the fact that “the whole interface is designed with plain old HTML,” except that there were a number of additional tags and a rendering engine that were exclusive to Palm. The continuing question is whether the recent $100 million in funding and the new device and OS are enough to save Palm from oblivion, or to attract a buyer. My prediction: Little action on this as Palm continues to survive on its cash infusion and bring out the new device, banking on its strong relationship with Sprint to make it a success. The device screen is an ideal media surface and Sprint needs to push a media service to stay healthy. However, the ultimate goal for this year has to be to get some value out of the Palm name in a major acquisition. The most likely players are HTC, who could use a high-profile brand for their devices, and - believe it or not - Motorola, who could see the acquisition of the brand as a way to stiffen its portfolio with innovation that it no longer has on-board. Motorola has been seen as a potential suitor for Palm for several years now, and economic disaster may give birth to a desperate measure for both companies.

Nokia has never been the dominant player in the U.S., but with over 40% of the world-wide market, it is continuing to advance at record rates in emerging markets, especially those that are skipping the elementary infrastructure that marked U.S. and European industry development and going straight to 3G and even 4G infrastructure. I had the opportunity to see some “philosophical” research from Nokia at HCI Mobile in Amsterdam in September. While it did nothing to indicate where Nokia was actually going, it revealed a lot about Nokia’s innovative mindset. This is a company that takes emerging markets (not just China and India) seriously. And they take technological advances seriously enough to keep several thousand researchers busy. My prediction: Look for Nokia to leverage their new “complete” ownership of Symbian to move aggressively into markets that are just building out their infrastructure with truly converged devices that fulfill the role of all three screens in one device. They will claim the cell phone, computer, and TV market in one fell swoop in these nations.

LG is poised to move aggressively into the media phone and smart phone market in the U.S. They have their sights set on the failing Motorola market share in the U.S. and will do whatever is necessary to capture that upper end market. In order to do that, they will have to go head-to-head with Korean rival Samsung. Both companies have an advantage over Windows Mobile and RIM smart phones in that they already appeal to mass consumer markets where smart phone growth in the U.S. will be greatest. If you’ve been using a Samsung or LG phone for the past five years and want to upgrade, you’ll expect the same brand to have an equally good experience on a higher-end device. I believe that the U.S. smart phone market is theirs to lose.

HTC will continue to produce devices for their own line and for anyone else that needs a phone built for them. There will be a whole new line-up of HTC phones that use both the Android OS and Windows Mobile OS. HTC is the only device manufacturer that is not afraid to embrace either operating system where it is and make the best device on top of it. It won’t be waiting for the next big release before making a commitment. As a result, it will outpace all other manufacturers in device release on those two platforms and could influence the outcome of the race between them. With Cher Wang’s shrewd leadership, you can expect a savvy move into the winning camp. That also includes an advance into the next wave of devices. HTC has already released small-screen microcomputers with the Advantage. If they are reading the market correctly, they will come out with a lower cost converged WiFi/GSM netbook. Regardless of whether it runs on Windows Mobile or Android, they will partner with the dominant Web services provider to put together a device that will operate on any GSM system with full netbook services and a tiny footprint.

And finally, Sony Ericsson. No matter what device this company produces this year, it will be high on the cool factor and will have extraordinary product placement in a major motion picture. Sony Ericsson is the only company that is credibly positioned to compete with Apple on the “cool factor.” They may have a small market, and their devices may not even have the top consumer ratings, but they will have the best product placement and advertising programs in the industry.

As for Apple, I covered their future on Monday, so I won’t repeat myself here.

Tomorrow

It’s the stupid economy!

Masthead

This is issue #47 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the third of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the third top news story of 2008.

WiMAX (why not?) or LTE (Late to Emerge)?

WiMAX stands for Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, and in our context it is cited as a contender for 4G mobile communications with data rates as much as 2 to 12 Mbits/s depending on the distance and line-of-sight availability. Its chief competitor in the 4G space is Long Term Evolution (LTE), a CDMA spec still evolving with estimated first deployments out in the 2010-2012 timeframe.

I’ve been on the WiMAX bandwagon for two years now extolling its virtues over the still-to-be-stabilized LTE specification. Just so you know my earlier predictions, in 2006 I projected that by 2011 Sprint will either be the dominant mobile operator in the United States or it will no longer be a player in the market, and that Sprint and Clearwire would become a single entity to roll out mobile WiMAX. The first prediction has three more years to run, but imagine my vindication when Sprint and Clearwire revived their joint operating talks and merged Sprint’s Xohm-branded mobile WiMAX network with Clearwire’s fixed WiMAX network. The new Clearwire is owned 51% by Sprint and 27% by the former Clearwire run by entrepreneur Craig McCaw. The glue in the Sprint/Clearwire merger seemed to be the 22% that is owned by five other investors. Intel with a $billion investment in the new company. The remaining $2 billion cash infusion came from Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Google, and Bright House Networks. http://tinyurl.com/gomo10f, http://tinyurl.com/gomo110, http://tinyurl.com/gomo111, http://tinyurl.com/gomo112

If this had just been a renewal of Sprint and Clearwire’s earlier attempt to jointly develop the WiMAX network, it might not have made my top 5 list for the year. But the $12 billion deal, over half funded by Sprint, brought together a consortium of people who companies who can only benefit by a rapid rollout of the highspeed 4G network, to wit: one chip manufacturer, three cable companies, and a Web services company that also happens to have a new smartphone operating system on the market. This combination brings a lot more depth to the Clearwire initiative and may be what ensures its success.

The announcement of the merger was quickly followed by a protest to the FCC from AT&T. . http://tinyurl.com/6boyvy, or http://tinyurl.com/68cz7n, or http://tinyurl.com/636jbt The new venture will make it harder for AT&T and Verizon to pick apart the oft maligned Sprint/Nextel company which has lost millions of subscribers in 2008, but maintains its position as the third largest U.S. carrier. AT&T accused Clearwire of failing to reveal how much spectrum will be used in the 2.5 GHz bandwidth. In spite of AT&T and Verizon dominating the FCC auction for the 700 MHz bandwidth this year, Sprint/Nextel is still the largest holder of broadband mobile spectrum in the U.S. That means they can build out the complete 4G WiMAX network without affecting their 2.75G EV-DO Rev. A network. And in spite of a slip from Verizon Wireless Chief Technical Officer Dick Lynch that indicated Verizon would launch its 4G Long Term Extension (LTE) network this year, it seems unlikely that they will manage more than a test market. http://tinyurl.com/gomo102 The change-over from 3G GSM networks like AT&T (and beginning T-Mobile) is rife with infrastructure problems that Clearwire will not have with WiMAX. Even the conversion from Verizon’s 3G CDMA network will require complete changeovers in how their bandwidth is allocated and some of the infrastructure.

http://tinyurl.com/55owqg, http://tinyurl.com/5x6ufk, http://tinyurl.com/5sl24g, http://tinyurl.com/5kmbf3, http://tinyurl.com/42w54t, http://tinyurl.com/699ddq, http://tinyurl.com/6af8do

What comes this year?

We’ll see a full nationwide deployment of Clearwire Mobile WiMAX a good two years before either Verizon or AT&T can make a significant dent in the market with LTE. Three things will drive adoption for the technology.

1. Network availability. If there is one thing that we have shown repeatedly, it is that we are not willing to wait for something better. Even in a troubled economy, mobile communications has shown remarkable staying power, especially in the adoption of new equipment. While the expansion of the market has slowed, it is still expanding and the people who want speed will flock to the network pledging support for an open network, wholesale access, 6Mbps speeds, and good coverage that has received endorsement from Stanford University, the Catholic Television Network, Vonage, and the Wireless Communications Association.

2. Device availability. Nokia has already shown and announced its new N810 Internet Tablet with full WiMAX and CDMA support. http://tinyurl.com/gomo10a Sprint has indicated that it is expecting to deploy an Android-based phone this year. Since Google is a part of the Clearwire investment, it would be ridiculous to think that they would bring out a device for Sprint that was not WiMAX capable. http://tinyurl.com/gomo103 HTC has already premiered its first GSM/WiMAX handset in Russia for Scartel’s Yota network. http://tinyurl.com/gomo08d The key thing, however, is that Sprint has already invested heavily in bringing non-telephone devices onto its network and has set data pricing accordingly. Clearwire has set up the WiMAX mobile network in such a way that devices can run on one carrier for telephony and on Clearwire for data.

3. Open network availability. Both Verizon and Sprint have made big bets on opening their networks to non-owned devices. That means that devices with voice service on AT&T may also run on Clearwire WiMAX. However, more importantly it means that Intel backed devices like the coming flood of Mobile Internet Devices and Netbooks, will also run on the WiMAX network without having Sprint voice or messaging service. HTC may bring its GSM/WiMAX dual device released in Russia to the U.S. and release it without going through Sprint. And mobile M2M (machine to machine) devices that do not require human interface may also benefit from the open network. I predict that in three years, there will be WiMAX equipped automobiles that are as common as those with Bluetooth today. http://tinyurl.com/gomo062

Finally, even though Clearwire estimates 1.5 million subscribers by the end of 2009, 4.6 million by the end of 2010, and slowed growth to 31 million subscribers by the end of 2017, don’t expect that the U.S. will be the dominant player in the world WiMAX market. Many places that are just building out their mobile infrastructure are skipping over the first, second, and third generation mobile networks for their countries and are going directly to 4G WiMAX because it is a stable spec with lots of infrastructure builders ready to install. While some analysts have predicted that the over-saturated western markets will drive data consumption, I believe it is the data-hungry emerging markets that will drive WiMAX adoption around the world.

http://tinyurl.com/gomo10b, http://tinyurl.com/gomo10c, http://tinyurl.com/gomo10d, http://tinyurl.com/gomo10e

Tomorrow

Device makers: the living, the dying, the dead

Masthead

This is issue #46 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the second of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the second top news story of 2008.

We need another, new, different, fewer, simpler OS

The fictional pundit Robert X. Cringely looked into the future and saw no Windows Mobile. Cringely noted that mobile phones are showing a classic distribution toward three competing standards. He assumes that Apple will have the dominant share with Android a favorable second. Then it was a toss-up between RIM, Symbian, or “Door Number Three.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo07c From a legitimate analyst, "Microsoft is absolutely going to have to justify the cost (of its operating system)," said Avi Greengart, an analyst at technology research firm Current Analysis."It's going to have to either prove the value or potentially lower the licensing fees itself." http://tinyurl.com/4vseye

Nokia acquired the 52% of Symbian that it did not already own, promising to transform it into an open source platform with the backing of the Symbian Foundation, a group of companies that will cooperate in defining the product. Popular analysis paints this as a big win for the world’s largest handset maker, positioning them to effectively compete with Google Android, LiMo, Apple, and Microsoft’s Windows Mobile. Ben Wood, analyst with CCS Insight, sees the move as a shrewd response to growing threats from other providers of mobile phone software. "Over the last ten years, Symbian has grown into the dominant supplier of smartphone operating systems, but it's being challenged by a variety of new contenders," said Wood. CCS believes that the involvement of other companies on the Symbian Foundation's board offers an elegant way to keep other Symbian licensees committed to the platform. And ironically, the move might even make Microsoft's Windows Mobile and Google's Android look overly proprietary and dominated by a single player. http://wirelessfederation.com/news/seven-things-about-the-nokia-symbian-deal/

Cookie-monster Google released its Android operating system and the first device shipped from T-Mobile. Andy Rubin, Google’s Senior Director of Mobile Platforms and father of Android, said that while the number of mobiles globally now exceeds the number of cars, TVs, PCs and internet connections on the planet, the development of the full potential of mobile technology has been hampered by fragmented operating systems. He did not make it clear how introducing another OS would remedy that situation. http://tinyurl.com/5p7gtq Says Mike Dano of RCR Wireless, “…if there’s one thing I know, it’s that we need more mobile-phone operating systems in the wireless industry. Yes sir, it’s not enough to have Symbian and Windows Mobile. Throwing in BlackBerry OS, iPhone OS, Palm OS and LiMo’s Linux doesn’t satisfy my need. No sir, I need more, darn it!

“Thankfully, Google is here to scratch my itch. And if Google’s new Chrome Internet browser (released last week) is any indication, the Google Android cellphone operating system will be a stripped-down effort, with virtually nothing new or exciting, that is clearly intended as a placeholder for more advanced services and functions that may or may not be released at some point in the future. But I’m still very excited. Mainly because if a Web site can launch a mobile-phone operating system, then it’s obviously not that hard and I should probably give it a shot too.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo044

But device manufacturers and mobile operators seem to be looking at fewer operating systems if they can get away with it. While Windows Mobile chases iPhone experiences, Nokia has advanced in Microsoft’s home space, selling operating systems. AT&T hopes to standardize on a single operating system for AT&T-branded smart phones as part of a "dramatic consolidation" of its mobile platforms over the next few years, a company executive said at the Symbian Partner event in San Francisco.

The mobile operator believes smart phones will make up the largest portion of devices connecting to its network by about 2014, and it wants to avoid the fragmentation of platforms that has made it hard to develop mobile applications, said Roger Smith, director of next generation services, data product realization at AT&T. He said Symbian is "a very credible and likely candidate" to become that one operating system. http://tinyurl.com/gomo09c Oops! where did Apple go in that relationship?

Motorola Inc. settled on Windows Mobile and Android as handset platforms in an effort to simplify, focus on innovation, and manage costs underscored the unknowns involved in such choices, because leading OSs come with “patrons and politics,” with unknown implications, one analyst said. The future is anything but clear. “Operators recognize the value of ARPU improvements from harnessing Symbian, Windows Mobile and others, but these OSs come with their patrons and politics,” said analyst John Jackson at Yankee Group. The “Shakespearean tragic flaw” confronting handset vendors and operators alike, Jackson said, is that these OSs are largely being championed by parties intent on rivaling the operators for much of the resulting data revenue smartphones will drive. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07d

Could Palm be out of the picture completely? Carmi Levy, a telecom and mobile analyst, told InternetNews.com he thinks a Palm bankruptcy filing could be looming for the troubled smartphone maker if it doesn't find a potential sale. "HTC, which has strong engineering credentials but no brand, could benefit from having Palm's brand," Levy said. If Palm pushes forward for a turnaround Mawston believes it'll take more than just an innovative handset. "Palm lacks differentiation, it lacks the global scale of Nokia, the wow design of Apple, the operator-customization of HTC and the sticky e-mail service of Blackberry," Mawston said, adding that at the very least Palm needs to push out a flagship product pronto. http://tinyurl.com/gomo098

Mirror, mirror on the wall, what’s the system for us all?

A lot of announcements have been made regarding operating systems in the past year and it is up to this prognosticator to determine which ones are going to come true. Will there be a single dominant smartphone operating system emerging from the market? The magic mirror says “Forget about it.” There will continue to be Apple, Windows Mobile, Android, RIM, and Symbian, as well as the combined force of Linux Phone Standards (LiPS) and Mobile Linux Forum (LiMo). What will be different this year is that it will be harder to tell the systems apart. That’s good news for Nokia, who with half the smartphone OS market (Symbian) has the most to lose from hot new differentiated systems. But hot, new, and differentiated are not where the market will be made this year. All the OS sheep are chasing the same rainbow and it looks like multi-touch screens. Keyboards are the biggest advantage that the non-Apple devices have, and those OS manufacturers are rushing to abandon them.

RIM fired the most obvious salvo in the closing months of 2008 with the Blackberry Storm. It put its own twist on the technology with the hidden keyboard under the screen that clicks when you push it. Nearly every device manufacturer from HTC’s Touch Diamond to Sony Ericcson, to Nokia, have shown touchscreen phones with bigger screens, higher resolution, and worse battery life.

And as for Palm being out of the picture, it has recently received $100m in investment capital to roll out its new operating system and seems to be far from too late to have an impact. Expect it’s new OS and slide-out keyboard device to appear this week at CES. http://tinyurl.com/8xv44y

What will happen is the possible consolidation of operating systems, possibly through acquisition. RIM has shown its continued viability as a competitor in the market, increasing marketshare steadily. Microsoft was too enamored of YAHOO! to seriously consider an acquisition, but at its lowest stock price and highest marketshare in two years, it is a bargain waiting for Nokia to sweep in. RIM and Nokia share the model of owning the operating system and manufacturing the devices and it would be a natural fit to see action on that front. http://tinyurl.com/843guj. Even with the cash infusion, Palm appears a natural target for HTC to take over. HTC already manufactures the Palm devices and could use its own brand. The benefit of owning an operating system would be beneficial as well.

So, will there be fewer operating systems by the end of 2009 than at the end of 2008? Yes, by one or at most two. But the presence of those systems will still be felt as they enhance the portfolio of one or more of their competitors.

Tomorrow

WiMAX? (why not?) or LTE? (Late to Emerge?)

Masthead

Su

This is issue #45 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Thnx,
Nathan Everett
Editor

The year in review and what’s ahead

Welcome to 2009! This is the first of five straight days of special Going Mobile newsletters. Each issue will deal with one of the top news stories of 2008 and what it means in the future. You get my personal prognostications regarding what the future will hold. So, let’s start with what I consider to be the top news story of 2009.

Extra! Extra! Apple invents 3G!

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9717097-1.html?tag=blogFeed

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-9964230-37.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121302962502757705.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/06/10/financial/f142249D00.DTL

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25102522/

Yes, recovering from the top criticism of the iPhone released in 2007 – releasing a high bandwidth phone that wasn’t 3G – Apple and AT&T made the release of the iPhone 3G sound like it was the first time that the new 3G technology was available, and that you needed an iPhone to take advantage of it. How quickly a year of criticism and two years of other 3G devices and networks disappeared! http://tinyurl.com/626z5d

And it was not only in the area of speed that Apple managed to convince the market that it was the first and only bet. The much touted iPhone 3G SDK was revealed and developers soiled themselves with excitement over finally having a “real developers’ environment.” Then the absolute icing on the cake was that there was an online store that applications could be sold through for a mere 50% fee to the beneficent fruit. http://tinyurl.com/5v4quz

Don’t think I hate Apple. I believe they released a revolutionary device in 2007 that captured the hearts of consumers who craved the touch of technology. It was hip and smart to have an iPhone. But this year’s story is all about putting the Apple name on existing technology, services, and operational systems and making them sound like new inventions exclusive to Apple. This positioned all new devices (even those released before the iPhone) as iPhone wannabes. And in fact, by the looks of it, the major device and OS makers of the world decided to let Apple have the lead by chasing it. The industry, like sheep, have followed the good Apple shepherd into the land of capacitive touch and in the next couple of years will achieve parity with the iPhone – of two years ago.

And that brings me to my predictions of

What will happen with the Apple iPhone this year?

There will be a new iPhone this summer in my opinion. Apple must accompany the end of its exclusive agreement with AT&T with something that will convince the other mobile operators that there is a reason to jump on the bandwagon this late in the game. I predict that this year, Apple will invent CDMA and will come out with a Verizon model. If Verizon is smart, it will insist that the new device is LTE compatible to go with Verizon’s already announced roll-out of an LTE network “sometime this year.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo102 T-Mobile in the US will probably also pick up the iPhone just because its European counterparts have it. Sprint? I doubt it. Even Apple doesn’t have the foresight to team up with the new Clearwire WiMAX mobile network and Sprint is skipping the intermediate upgrade to 3G to head straight to its 4G technology. http://tinyurl.com/gomo103

Steve Jobs has pretty well exposed Apple’s plan for the future. He quoted Babe Ruth as saying he only had one homerun, but kept hitting it over and over. http://tinyurl.com/gomo069 Apple development is pretty much like a Dan Brown novel. Once you’ve read “The DaVinci Code,” you know the plot for all his books. But they all sell because people love that plot and he writes it so well. People who bought one will buy all of them. People who start with the next great author are less likely to be so enamored of Brown.

So look at what Apple did with the iMac and with the iPod. They pretty much settled on a great industrial design, then continued to make annual changes that just tweaked it a little. In the future, we should see an iPhone Mini and an iPhone Nano. Yes, an iPhone without a touchscreen and an iPhone with no browser, just music, messaging, and phone. Other than that, the iPhone is the iPhone and is now dependent on better networks and new industry technology. http://tinyurl.com/gomo104

However, both Apple and RIM have made allusions to the iPhone and the Storm being very small netbooks. http://tinyurl.com/gomo109 That is an area that I would expect Apple to launch another revolution in. You should expect a netbook that has both WiFi and 3G connectivity, an incredible industrial design, and applications and services that are focused on Web 2.0. It will have a capacitive touchscreen and no keyboard, be extremely high-resolution in a wide-screen format that makes movies and music (from iTunes, of course) really pop. You’ll be able to share your iPhone settings with it over the air (OTA), but it won’t waste precious space with a DVD drive or a lot of ports. It will be high on RAM, but will have little (16-24Gb) of storage. It will be assumed that you get everything you need for the device OTA from, of course, “iNet” from which you will get all your music, video, and applications.

The biggest question upcoming is whether the mobile operators who are in the second tier of iPhone rollouts will see a big enough advantage in the partnership with Apple to give up customer control the way the first wave of carriers has. This will be the biggest sign that the walled garden is opening up. http://tinyurl.com/gomo048

Tomorrow

“What we need is a single good OS.”

Masthead

This is issue #44 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft, the Windows Mobile management team, or any of the fine companies and news services mentioned herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below.

Number 43, 15 December 2008

In this issue

· High speed wireless race begins

· Smaller iPhone for the holiday?

· RIM acquiring and hiring

· Taking a break

· Masthead

High speed wireless race begins

In spite of the fact that Sprint/Clearwire has been rolling out a 4G wireless WiMAX network for over a year now, the media has condescended to acknowledge that there is a race beginning for 4G dominance. The event that inspired media to recognize this was a Verizon Wireless announcement last week that they would step up the development of their 4G network based on long term evolution (LTE). Dick Lynch, Verizon Chief Technology Officer, announced at an industry conference in San Francisco that Verizon would roll out its LTE network in 2009, months before their original plan. Since Sprint/Clearwire was the only player in the 4G space up to this announcement, it took a second player in the game to make it a race, or fight, whichever sport you prefer to knock off for your analogy. But it bore all the signs of a slip of the tongue as Verizon spokesman Jeffrey Nelson was quick to point out that they were not releasing any additional information beyond what Lynch had said at the conference. That leaves it unclear as to what extent Verizon will rollout LTE next year. Charles Golvin, an analyst for Forrester Research said, “Does that mean one tower? One tiny cluster in a town somewhere? There's a lot being made of this, but I'm not sure what the clarity is around how widespread that deployment will be.” Since the LTE standard has not been finalized, it is unclear whether Verizon will roll out a test network or a commercial network. http://tinyurl.com/gomo102

Sprint, in the meantime, made it clear that it was looking at the release of an Android-based smartphone in the next year. “We believe in the vision for Android, so we want to see it get bigger and get healthy,” Kevin Packingham, Sprint’s vice president of products and devices, said yesterday in an interview. “We can, when the timing’s right, pull the trigger.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo103

What does it take for the timing to be “right?” It is worth noting that Google is a billion dollar partner with Sprint in Clearwire. With an anticipated dozen or more markets slated to be operational with Clearwire WiMAX in the next few months, you could lay money on the idea that the timing would include the convergence of the Android phone with WiMAX broadband access and enough mobile WiMAX markets open to make it worthwhile. Sprint is still the third largest carrier in the U.S. and bringing its 4G investment into reality with more than mobile internet devices (MIDs) would be a huge step into the front the high speed wireless race. If you want to place money on that bet, Sprint stock was trading at under $2.50 per share last week, having lost some 80% of its value in the past year.

Smaller iPhone for the holiday?

The nation's top retailer, Walmart, is officially tight-lipped about the buzz that its shelves could be hosting a $99 4GB iPhone by the end of the month. But mobile device experts have plenty to say, and it's all good. Published reports in the New York Post and Mercury News quoted Walmart employees at various stores nationwide claiming that a 4GB iPhone will arrive before December 30th. One report said Walmart was attempting a pre-Christmas launch. If the stories pan out, the smaller storage version of the iPhone could also be a way for Apple to boost its iPod market share, which is starting to slide. The music device is viewed as the gateway product into Apple's computing device portfolio, according to a recent industry report from Pipe Jaffray, and its declining growth is a concern. http://tinyurl.com/gomo104

It sounds reasonable. Apple product portfolios have followed a pretty standard procedure in the past and, as Steve Jobs says, you only have to hit one homerun, over and over again. If you want to predict what Apple will do with the iPhone, just look at the development of the iPod. Sell the standard model and one a bit lower so people can get in on the ground floor. Drop the lower memory model and add a higher one. Come back with a miniature version with lower memory. Bring out two or three more styles over the following years that have all the same software and functionality with moderately different designs. Always work on convincing people that they need more storage to keep ever more media. You can just about bet on iPhone, iPhone Nano (smaller, non-touch screen, no browser), and iPhone Mini (keypad with small standard-size screen and few if any connected features except iTunes – oh yes, and in 5 colors). Last of all you’ll get an iPhone Netbook on which a capacitive touchscreen actually makes sense. It will usher in a new generation of iMac touchscreen computers. There you have it and you heard it here first.

RIM – acquiring and hiring

Bad financial news and criticism over the release of the Storm didn’t stop RIM from making aggressive moves in the market this month. Research In Motion Ltd.'s hostile bid for Canadian security firm Certicom Corp. could make the BlackBerry a safer choice for enterprise customers, particularly within the public sector, industry analysts said Thursday. The Waterloo, Ontario-based BlackBerry maker made its all-cash offer on Wednesday for Mississauga, Ontario-based Certicom after reporting lower-than-expected third-quarter earnings. Certicom's board rejected the bid and in a statement said that other parties were also looking at acquiring the firm. RIM's own public statements revealed the company has been trying unsuccessfully to negotiate with Certicom since February of last year. http://tinyurl.com/gomo105

In a friendlier offer, RIM also moved to acquire content provider Chalk Media Corp. RIM offered to buy Chalk Media, developer of a platform that delivers content including video to BlackBerry users, for $23 million Canadian ($18 million U.S.). As part of the agreement, RIM has loaned Chalk $2 million Canadian, which will provide working capital to the company until the deal goes through. Chalk's Mobile chalkboard allows enterprises to push content out to BlackBerry users, who could be employees or customers. The content, which Chalk calls "pushcasts," can include text, graphics, video and audio. Chalkboard lets administrators track usage of the content, which can be encrypted and prevented from being forwarded or copied. http://tinyurl.com/gomo106

The move shows the growing importance of applications in the smartphone space. Users have been able to buy third-party applications for years from places like Handango, but the experience could be a bit cumbersome, and the mobile programs did not always catch on with much of the mainstream. But Apple's introduction of the App Store has brought mobile apps to the forefront in the smartphone market. The user interface and simple integration with iTunes made it simple for iPhone and iPod Touch users to search, buy, and download apps, and the service has been an undeniable success for customers and developers. RIM is also planning to launch its own online storefront for mobile apps in March 2009. Unlike Apple, RIM's store could be more focused on enterprise apps which makes the Chalk acquisition a natural fit. Organizations that have deployed BlackBerry Enterprise Server or BlackBerry Professional Software are expected to retain control of what applications can be downloaded to BlackBerry smartphones within their corporate deployments. http://tinyurl.com/gomo107

While many companies are slashing employees at an unprecedented rate, Research In Motion Ltd. has more than 1,250 positions it needs filled. The BlackBerry maker is bucking a trend that saw Canada shed over 71,000 jobs last month -- the largest monthly decline since 1982 -- by maintaining a highly vibrant and active hiring regime. The jobs are spread across the world, from Australia to the United States, with the vast majority located in the company's Waterloo, Ont. headquarters within its R&D and product development departments. "For the past three or four years, RIM has done the same thing companies like Nokia [Corp.] are doing now with a fraction of the workforce," said a company insider who declined to be named. "Right now, for every engineer who is promoted, RIM is hiring two or three to replace them. Probably in a few more years RIM could do some restructuring but not now." http://tinyurl.com/gomo108

Taking a break

The editor will be on a year-end vacation the next two weeks and Going Mobile (for the first time since its inception) will not be published during that break. However, I’ll resume on January 5 with a two-part issue. Part one will be a review of the past year and the big happenings as I saw them. Part two will be unadulterated prognostication. I’ll tell you what I think will happen in the industry in the coming 12 months. You can check back in 2010 to see if I’m anywhere near on track. If nothing else, it should be worth a chuckle.

Masthead

This is issue #43 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• iPhone tops Windows Mobile sales
• At last: something to blame my forgetfulness on
• I-mate builds touch-interface Windows Mobile phone
• Twitter grows up
• Strange phones
• Masthead

iPhone tops Windows Mobile sales

It was a rough week for Microsoft as research results for the 3rd quarter from Gartner indicated that the success of the Apple iPhone 3G propelled the Mac OS X past Windows Mobile for the number three spot in smartphone operating systems. Overall, the smartphone market did not do well in the economic crunch, recording its weakest year-on-year increase since the numbers have been tracked. The smartphone market grew 11.5% from a year ago recording 36.5 million units in the third quarter.

Apple, however, saw iPhone sales soar more than 320% to 4.7 million units, making the company the third biggest seller of smartphones and smartphone operating systems. Sales of Microsoft Windows Mobile, on the other hand, fell 3% to 4.1 million units. Gartner expects fourth-place Microsoft to feel even more competitive pressure in the future not just from Apple, but from open source initiatives like Android and Symbian Foundation, which are expected to challenge Windows Mobile's licensing model. In addition, the user interface on the Microsoft OS is falling behind competitors' UIs, particularly in the consumer market, Gartner said. 

Nokia experienced a similar fall in sales, but with 42.4% market share, the drop was scarcely noticed. RIM surged 81% in the third quarter and remained in second place. http://tinyurl.com/69zwxm

While Windows Mobile chases iPhone experiences, Nokia has advanced in Microsoft’s home space, selling operating systems. AT&T hopes to standardize on a single operating system for AT&T-branded smart phones as part of a "dramatic consolidation" of its mobile platforms over the next few years, a company executive said today.

The mobile operator believes smart phones will make up the largest portion of devices connecting to its network by about 2014, and it wants to avoid the fragmentation of platforms that has made it hard to develop mobile applications, said Roger Smith, director of next generation services, data product realization at AT&T. Speaking at the Symbian Partner Event in San Francisco, he said Symbian is "a very credible and likely candidate" to become that one operating system. http://tinyurl.com/gomo09c

Apparently AT&T is either not counting on a continued iPhone hegemony, or simply doesn’t think of it as a smartphone.

While the unveiling of the N97 touch-screen smartphone garnered most of the attention at Nokia World this week, Nokia also announced it had completed the acquisition of Symbian. Nokia was already a 48% stakeholder in Symbian, but in June the cell phone manufacturer said it would purchase the remaining shares for $410 million and move the market-leading Symbian mobile operating system into the open source environment under a royalty-free Eclipse Public License. http://tinyurl.com/gomo09d

At last: something to  blame my forgetfulness on…

­Can radiation from cell phones affect the memory? Yes, if you are a rat – according to the results of experiments at the Division of Neurosurgery, Lund University, in Sweden. Henrietta Nittby studied rats that were exposed to mobile phone radiation for two hours a week for more than a year. These rats had poorer results on a memory test than rats that had not been exposed to radiation.

The memory test consisted of releasing the rats in a box with four objects mounted in it. These objects were different on the two occasions, and the placement of the objects was different from one time to the other.

The actual test trial was the third occasion. This time the rats encountered two of the objects from the first and two of the objects from the second occasion. The control rats spent more time exploring the objects from the first occasion, which were more interesting since the rats had not seen them for some time. The experiment rats, on the other hand, evinced less pronounced differences in interest. http://tinyurl.com/gomo09e

I won’t be convinced until they show me the rats can’t find their car keys.

I-mate builds touch interface on Windows Mobile

­Microsoft Mobile based smartphone vendor, i-mate has launched Go, a new user interface for i-mate handsets. With the tap or slide of a finger, i-mate Go navigates through the full suite of Windows Mobile tools. Users can customise the interface adding their own icons for one touch access to the things they use every day from emails, notes and text messages to pictures, the internet or music.

i-mate Go is available as a free download for the Ultimate 9502, Ultimate 8502, Ultimate 8150, Ultimate 6150, and JAMA 101. The Go interface is powered by VITO Winterface.

The company also announced Windows Mobile 6.1 availability for the i-mate Ultimate range, commencing with the i-mate Ultimate 9502 and Ultimate 8502. Windows Mobile 6.1 will be available for the Ultimate 8150 and Ultimate 6150 very shortly. http://tinyurl.com/gomo09f

Twitter grows up

Twitter stepped into the spotlight this week, not only as a charity organizer and possible advertising goldmine during the holidays, but as a legitimate news aggregator.

Lots of tech blogs have been touting Twitter's potential since its inception, but on-the-ground reports from the Mumbai terror attacks put the idea in motion. In some cases, Twitterers were able to be on the scene long before TV and newspaper reporters could get there.

CNN reports that an estimated 80 messages, or "tweets," were being sent to Twitter.com via SMS every five seconds, providing eyewitness accounts and updates. http://tinyurl.com/gomo100

Strange phones

Lacking any real ground-breaking phones to get excited about, I’ll leave you with the Nova Scotia promotional site that advertises the do-everything Pomegranate Mobile Phone. I wish I had the industrial designers who worked on this product on my team! The punchline: You may not able to get a phone that does everything, but there is a place that has everything—Nova Scotia. http://tinyurl.com/gomo101

Masthead

This is issue #42 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• Mobile messaging set for growth in slow economy
• Businesses see smartphone use growing
• Is it too late for Palm?
• Stephen Hawking to join RIM-backed scientific institute
• Mobile Web remains a mystery to most
• Masthead

Mobile messaging set for growth in slow economy

Despite the fact that the global economy is slowing down, mobile messaging growth will continue. According to data from ABI Research’s recent report, mobile messaging services revenues will grow from $151 billion in 2008 to greater than $212 billion globally by 2013.

Mobile messaging ARPUs are 85%+ of all handset data services revenues regardless of region and will remain so for many years. This fact will push all mobile messaging suppliers to work cooperatively to serve customers well and propel all parties (operators, device OEMs, content providers and middleware vendors) through these rough economic waters, according to ABI’s principal analyst Dan Shey.

Also important is the trend that involves more and more customers who see mobile messaging services as a more efficient way to communicate than voice services. http://tinyurl.com/gomo095

Businesses see smartphone use growing

Businesses are planning to boost the deployment of smart phones during the next three years, while laptop deployments will slow dramatically, according to survey of 340 companies in the U.S. and Western Europe.

The survey of small and large businesses by Northboro, Mass.-based J. Gold Associates, projected that the use of smart phones in corporate settings will double over the next three years. The survey found that the number of smart-phone devices will grow about 30% in the next year and will have doubled over three years.

The use of business applications on smart phones is also projected to grow, by 71% over one year and 196% over three years. http://tinyurl.com/gomo096

Mobile network operators in developed regions should prepare for a tenfold increase in wireless network traffic by 2015, as data traffic rapidly overtakes voice, according to the latest report entitled Wireless network traffic 2008-2015: forecasts and analysis from Analysys Mason, the premier advisers on telecoms, IT and digital media. Total wireless network traffic from cellular users in developed regions is set to increase substantially, driven by, improved cellular devices (such as USB modems and smartphones); widespread deployment of advanced 3G technologies and femtocells; affordable pricing (particularly for traffic-intensive services); more indoor usage of cellular devices; and increasing size of items of Web content. “While developed regions will account for just 25% of the cellular user population by 2015, they will generate 65% of total global wireless network traffic”, according to Dr Mark Heath, the report’s co-author. “This is due to a higher proportion of advanced handsets and the earlier deployment of more advanced cellular technologies, such as LTE, which have higher throughput.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo099

Is it too late for Palm?

Faced with strong competition from Apple and Research In Motion, as well as economic headwinds, Palm has decided to lay off some workers.

Valleywag reported that the layoffs could involve as many as 10 percent of the company's 1,050 employees. A Palm representative confirmed that layoffs were taking place but did not comment on exactly how many people were affected.

"There have been some layoffs as a result of challenges facing our company and the industry, and we're restructuring our worldwide operations to better position ourselves for profitability and long-term growth," said Lynn Fox, a Palm spokeswoman. She declined to comment on exactly where the cuts would come, but she said Palm has decided to "focus our efforts more effectively." http://tinyurl.com/gomo097

Carmi Levy, a telecom and mobile analyst, told InternetNews.com he thinks a bankruptcy filing could be looming for the troubled smartphone maker if it doesn't find a potential sale. [Korean handset maker] "HTC, which has strong engineering credentials but no brand, could benefit from having Palm's brand," Levy said. If Palm pushes forward for a turnaround Mawston believes it'll take more than just an innovative handset.

"Palm lacks differentiation, it lacks the global scale of Nokia, the wow design of Apple, the operator-customization of HTC and the sticky e-mail service of Blackberry," Mawston said, adding that at the very least Palm needs to push out a flagship product pronto. http://tinyurl.com/gomo098

Stephen Hawking to join RIM-backed scientific institute

­Legendary scientist Prof. Stephen Hawking has been appointed to the post of Distinguished Research Chair at Canada's Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics (PI). The institute was founded by Mike Lazaridis, founder and Co-CEO of Research In Motion (RIM), maker of the ubiquitous BlackBerry phone.

Prof. Hawking will conduct regular stays at PI in coming years, beginning in the summer of ’09, and says, "I am honoured to accept the first Distinguished Research Chair at the Perimeter Institute. The Institute's twin focus, on quantum theory and gravity, is very close to my heart and central to explaining the origin of the Universe. I look forward to building a growing partnership between PI and our Centre for Theoretical Cosmology, at Cambridge. Our research endeavour is global, and by combining forces I believe we will reap rich rewards." http://tinyurl.com/gomo09a

Mobile Web remains a mystery to most

The mobile information superhighway is in need of some serious maintenance. That’s the take-away from a new Yankee Group evaluation of 32 consumer-facing mobile Web sites. The market research firm scored the sites on a scale of one to 100, grading them on 25 criteria including effectiveness, design and ease of use. The top score was an unimpressive 67. The average score? Just 54.

“I would make the argument that today’s mobile Web is very similar to where the World Wide Web was in 1994, 1995,” said Carl Howe, director of Yankee Group’s Anywhere Consumer research group, during a Webinar presenting his findings. “If we think of mobile Web sites the way we look at an average seventh-grade class, everyone so far, unfortunately, is failing.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo09b

Masthead

This is issue #41 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• HTC 4G WiMAX phone to debut—in Russia
• Gartner tells networks to give Google a little love
• So you think you’re smart(phone)?
• Let’s not pretend
• Masthead

HTC 4G WiMAX phone to debut—in Russia

In an exclusive deal with Russian carrier Scartel's Yota network, HTC has premiered its first GSM/WiMAX handset, indicating how rapidly the evolution of the world's communications infrastructure may be leaving the US behind. Logically called the MAX 4G, HTC's Windows Mobile 6.1 device offers a 3.8" (800 x 400) WVGA tactile display with the company's TouchFLO 3D user interface, the UI of HTC's Touch Diamond, Pro, and HD devices.

Yota is the first Russian Mobile WiMAX network, deployed in Moscow and St. Petersburg, areas with a total population over 20 million. The total coverage area is about 1,207 KM and consists of 150 base stations in Moscow and 80 in St. Petersburg. The network operates on IEEE 802.16e-2005 standard in the 2.5-2.7 GHz frequency range, and promises speeds of up to 200 Mbps. Scartel expects the Yota network to include over 1000 base stations by the end of this year. In addition to high-speed wireless internet, Yota's Mobile WiMAX network supports VoIP and IPTV. Yota TV already has 14 mobile TV channels, and promises a total of 23 by year's end. Additionally, the HTC MAX 4G supports TV-OUT functionality. http://tinyurl.com/gomo08d

Gartner tells networks to give Google a little love

One industry analyst said the nation's telecom carriers would benefit from showing some love toward Google Inc. instead of fighting over issues such as Net neutrality, white-space spectrum usage and selling software as a service over carrier networks. If the carriers don't accommodate and partner in some areas with Google, they stand to lose, said Alex Winogradoff, a Gartner Inc. analyst who wrote a report on ways that Google could influence the future of telecom. Today, one industry analyst said the nation's telecom carriers would benefit from showing some love toward Google Inc. instead of fighting over issues such as Net neutrality, white-space spectrum usage and selling software as a service over carrier networks. If the carriers don't accommodate and partner in some areas with Google, they stand to lose, said Alex Winogradoff, a Gartner Inc. analyst who wrote a report on ways that Google could influence the future of telecom. http://tinyurl.com/gomo08E

So, you think you're smart(phone)?

A survey released Sunday by the nonprofit Pew Research Center found that 48 percent of adults who use the Internet or have a cell phone or computer say they usually need someone else to set them up or show them how to use them. "What this shows us is that, even as the Internet and the technology revolution sort of starts to enter a phase of maturity, there's still a lot to be done in terms of making technology more usable to many," said John Horrigan, associate director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

Cell phones and other handheld electronics work a bit better, according to the survey. Just 29 percent of cell phone users and 26 percent of users with BlackBerry, Palm or other handheld computers said they had problems with their devices in the previous year. The survey found that about 38 percent of people who had tech problems contacted a user-support service for help; 28 percent fixed the problems themselves; 15 percent called in help from family or friends. About 15 percent of those surveyed said they weren't able to fix their devices at all and apparently gave up on them. http://tinyurl.com/gomo08f

The figure was even higher for certain products. Almost a quarter of cell phone users said they never managed to get their device fixed. And among those who did resolve an issue, a higher percentage either corrected the problem themselves or sought help from friends or relatives rather than call customer service. "That 15 percent of technology users are sort of throwing up their hands was surprising for us," said John Horrigan, the author of the study. "You're talking about close to one in four cell phone users and one in five computer users saying, `Hey I can't cope with this any longer, I'm done.'"

Zachary McGeary, an analyst with Jupiter Research, noted that gadgetry now involves an "increasingly integrated ecosystem of devices." In other words, it isn't enough anymore for cell phones and computers to simply work on their own. They also have to get along with each other, and swap video and pictures.

Horrigan argues these statistics should sway technology providers to focus harder on making their products more user-friendly. Ask Avery Griffin, who switched to an Apple Inc. computer a few years ago for its audio recording software. The 24-year-old musician said his new machine wouldn't stop freezing up and crashing. But he said all he heard from Apple was, "At least it's not a PC." The PC he uses now works just fine, he said. http://tinyurl.com/gomo090

The survey of 2,054 adults was conducted by phone late last year and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Presumably, it was also limited to those who knew how to answer their phones.

Let’s not pretend

I’m on vacation this week, so the Going Mobile Newsletter and blog is a short one. But it also gives me the opportunity to “think deep thoughts.” Among those that occurred to me this week was my weariness over mobile devices pretending to be computers instead of phones. The simple fact remains that people buy mobile phones for two reasons: To make phone calls and… Okay, I’ve said before that I might extend that in this more mature age to two or three things, but there are very few “power users” who want to use every feature that a standard smartphone offers today compared to those who just want a good phone.

Where have we gone astray? IMHO we’ve forgotten the fundamental fact that phones—and mobile phones especially—are instruments of social interaction. We tack computer functionality onto that fundamental use. SMS is still one of the top if not the top mobile application today. People buy the phones for communication. That should be good news for companies who are developing social communications applications for the plethora of devices out there today, whether it is telling my friends what my location is or playing a multi-user game. It’s not the greatest news if delivering entertainment, browsing, or “delivery of services” is your thing. Why? Because those are inherently one-directional and non-social.

I reported on a story a few weeks ago that held that television shows about nothing in particular, like “Seinfeld,” are no longer possible. Why sit in a restaurant wondering and arguing about whether there is really a villa available in a certain area of Italy or if your contact just doesn’t want you to be near them? Jerry simply pulls out his smartphone and searches Italian villas, locates the one of his dreams, and books his vacation. …while George does what? There is no humorous conversation about nothing in particular. There is no social interaction. The article held that this was the way of the future as smartphones bring more and more PC features to their users. But fundamentally this is a future of despair.

What we need are more applications and features that make social interaction available to smartphone users—and I’m not talking about installing an app that gives you Facebook on a smartphone. What makes SMS so popular? It is an immediate interaction. The same is true of Instant Messaging. Photo and music sharing could be in that category. But when brilliant minds start thinking about social interaction (assuming brilliant minds can think socially) there will be a whole new range of mobile social activities that come available. And frankly, that is what will distinguish your mobile operator from your OS or search provider. The mobile operator is the channel for social interaction just as the device is the instrument.

So put that into your product planning hopper and bring back some ideas that will revolutionize mobile social interaction and separate smartphones from desktop, laptop, and netbook PCs.

Masthead

This is issue #39 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• Is Windows Mobile about to die?
• A busy day at the FCC
• AT&T to expand
• Defying the economy
• I don’t wanna show off no more…
• Masthead

Is Windows Mobile about to die?

Robert X. Cringely at PBS has looked into the future and sees no Windows Mobile. "This is not a time to bet against the iPhone, which is changing the entire landscape of not just smartphones but mobile phones in general. For all its teething problems, there is a new sheriff in town and his name is iPhone. We'll see nothing but progress and market-share gains there," said the pundit. Mr. Cringely's analysis is in sharp contrast to the comments made earlier in the week by Microsoft's Robbie Bach who sees Windows Mobile having its own day in the sun after the fuss over the Apple iPhone "normalizes."

Cringely, a noted computer industry observer, noted that mobile phones are showing a classic distribution toward three competing standards. Symbian is growing old, the development language is non-standard, and the UI is not very friendly and getting uglier. In time, mobile phone makers will migrate to the more modern Android. "If I had to bet right this moment on the mobile 85-10-5 of 2011, I'd say iPhone, Android, then RIM, Symbian, or something completely new from behind Door Number Three," he added. The result will be that, in the long run Windows Mobile will fade away. "The way things are headed now, given that Microsoft can't really afford to be anything but first or second on the platform that supplants Windows, I'd say Windows Mobile will be dead," Mr. Cringely concluded. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07c

Remarkably, Microsoft declined to roll over and crawl into the grave. News last week that Motorola Inc. had settled on Windows Mobile and Android as handset platforms in an effort to simplify, focus on innovation, and manage costs underscored the unknowns involved in such choices, because leading OSs come with “patrons and politics,” with unknown implications, one analyst said. The future is anything but clear. “Operators recognize the value of ARPU improvements from harnessing Symbian, Windows Mobile and others, but these OSs come with their patrons and politics,” said analyst John Jackson at Yankee Group. The “Shakespearean tragic flaw” confronting handset vendors and operators alike, Jackson said, is that these OSs are largely being championed by parties intent on rivaling the operators for much of the resulting data revenue smartphones will drive. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07d

Adjunct to Motorola’s consolidation announcement, Sanjay Jha, Co-CEO of the struggling handset maker, let slip that the company will be releasing a phone based on Windows Mobile 6.5 in the second half of 2009. Motorola will also open a new office in Seattle to "work closely with Microsoft to deliver differentiation" as it continues to used the WM platform for its high-end business phone. Moto will follow the release of the WM 6.5 handset with a Google Android-based phone in the latter part of 2009. "I think that that will reduce the number of phones that will launch at least in the second or third quarters of next year, but I think thereafter, we expect that using Android and Windows Mobile, to be able to address larger portion of the mid- and high-tier market," Jha said according to PC Magazine. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07e

The unexpected mention of a version 6.5 was considered a slip of the tongue on Jha’s part, but Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer confirmed the new mobile platform in a Q&A at Australia’s Telstra Investor Briefing. Ballmer said "With releases we'll make this year - releases we'll make with 6.5 next year, Windows Mobile 7, I think we have a pretty interesting roadmap." http://tinyurl.com/gomo07f Interestingly, Telstra also demonstrated the world’s fastest mobile network, called “Next G” with enhanced HSPA (eHSPA) speeds of up to 21gbps. http://tinyurl.com/gomo080

Motorola and Telstra were not the only companies announcing long-range agreements with Microsoft last week. LG Electronics and Microsoft have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to form collaboration in mobile convergence. The agreement ensures continued collaboration in R&D, marketing, applications, and services in the field of converged mobile devices. “This agreement between LG and Microsoft will create critical momentum in the industry,” said Yong Nam at the announcement ceremony. “With this partnership, mobile computing will truly become an everyday reality, and LG and Microsoft will be at the forefront of it.”

“This MoU further strengthens Microsoft relationship with LG and demonstrates our joint commitment to delivering the most innovative mobile experiences to our customers,” said Steve Ballmer. “We are excited that leading mobility solutions providers, such as LG, are aligning with our vision for mobility.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo081

Microsoft Corp, capitalizing on Google Inc's regulatory snarl, is working to steal a deal with Verizon Wireless away from its rival, the Wall Street Journal said. Microsoft has got the mobile carrier's attention by offering a sweeter deal to put its search service and related advertising on Verizon phones, the paper said. Microsoft is also offering more generous revenue sharing and a guarantee of substantially higher payments to Verizon, the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter. Microsoft has found an opening recently partly because Google has been busy dealing with the U.S. Department of Justice's review of its Yahoo Inc partnership, the paper said citing, people familiar with the matter. http://tinyurl.com/gomo082

Apparently the folks at Microsoft simply didn’t get Cringely’s memo.

A busy day at the FCC

The Federal Communications Commission conditionally approved the Verizon Wireless-Alltel Communications L.L.C. and the Sprint Nextel-Clearwire Corp. mergers, while also voting to allow unlicensed devices to operate in vacant broadcast spectrum known as white spaces. The three major wireless decisions, which were preceded by massive lobbying, controversy and substantial congressional input, closely followed proposals championed by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin. While Martin and his colleagues negotiated compromises on some issues, the decisions fell short of what some commissioners and wireless carriers wanted.

The FCC’s approval is the last major regulatory action necessary for consummation of the Verizon-Alltel merger, following the Justice Department’s recent approval. The combination of Verizon Wireless and Alltel will push AT&T Mobility from the nation’s No. 1 wireless provider position. The FCC also imposed county-based E-911 location accuracy and universal service funding reform conditions on the Verizon Wireless-Alltel and Sprint Nextel-Clearwire transactions. According to Reuters, Sprint Nextel scored DoJ approval in August over AT&T’s protests.

The agency’s decision on TV white spaces reserves the valuable spectrum for unlicensed devices subject to safeguards to prevent interference to broadcasters, wireless microphone users and others. The wireless industry had lobbied for a licensing approach to TV white spaces. Telecom and high-tech companies (Microsoft and Google) as well as public-interest groups applauded the FCC ruling, while broadcasters blasted the agency.

“Today’s vote ushers in a new era of wireless broadband innovation,” said Craig Mundie, chief research and strategy officer at Microsoft Corp. “Like other unlicensed facilities, which enabled popular technologies such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, white spaces will make possible new and creative solutions to a range of broadband connectivity challenges. For example, white-spaces radios can help rural communities to augment their broadband Internet access inexpensively. Today’s vote also makes possible new ways to connect people and devices to each other and to Internet-based services, helping boost American productivity. And it will create opportunities for American companies to remain at the forefront of technological innovation worldwide, helping to create jobs and economic growth.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo083

Let’s not forget Mom, Apple Pie, Change for America.

AT&T to expand

Not to be left out of the acquisition mode and let Verizon get too far ahead in number of subscribers, AT&T has announced that it is buying regional mobile phone operator, Centennial Communications for $944 million in cash. The company said that the transaction will enhance AT&T’s wireless coverage for customers in largely rural areas of the Midwest and Southeast United States and in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. “Mobility is a vital investment area for AT&T and our company’s biggest growth driver,” said Ralph de la Vega, president and chief executive officer of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets. “This transaction enhances network coverage for our consumer and business customers and is expected to create long-term value for AT&T’s stockholders.” The addition of Centennial’s 850 MHz spectrum should also improve service quality for AT&T customers in parts of Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio and Texas. http://tinyurl.com/gomo084

Centennial was not the only acquisition AT&T snatched up this week. ­AT&T has brought the Wi-Fi network operator, Wayport for approximately US$275 million in cash. The deal adds Wayport's focused capabilities and enterprise customer portfolio with AT&T's Internet and 3G networks. The acquisition expands the AT&T Wi-Fi footprint to nearly 20,000 domestic hotspots, takes the company's global Wi-Fi presence to more than 80,000 locations. Wayport hotspots are in key locations, including select Wyndham, Marriott Vacation Club and Four Seasons hotels; HealthSouth and Sun Healthcare locations; plus McDonald's restaurants. http://tinyurl.com/gomo085

Defying the economy

­According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, mobile phone shipments in the United States defied the economic gloom and grew 6 percent annually, to reach 47 million units during the third quarter of 2008. Samsung outperformed, making it the market leader in the US for the first time. Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, said, “Despite the financial crisis, mobile phone shipments in the United States reached 47.4 million units during Q3 2008, up 6.2 percent from 44.6 million in Q3 2007. Attractive bundling schemes from operators, healthy subsidies and aggressive pre-stocking by distributors ahead of the holiday season helped to lift volumes.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo087

Despite the gloomy economic picture and the problems being experienced by some of the leading mobile handset vendors, global shipments of smart phones hit a new peak of just under 40 million units in Q3 2008, according to the latest estimates from leading analyst firm Canalys. This means smart phones now represent around 13% of the total mobile phone market, up from 11% last quarter. The introduction of the iPhone 3G in July and Apple’s expansion into many more countries helped propel the vendor to second place globally, taking it above RIM in the quarter and resulting in higher shipments than for all the Microsoft-based smart phones combined.­ http://tinyurl.com/gomo086

In spite of the good standings, ­Apple may have to cut production of its 3G iPhone by up to 40 percent during the final quarter of this year - writes Craig Berger, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, an investment bank. "That the firm's iPhone production plans are being revised lower suggests that the global macroeconomic weakness is impacting even high-end consumers, those that are more likely to buy Apple's expensive gadgets, and that no market segment will be spared in this global downturn," he wrote in an investment note. Apple had warned that the current economic climate could affect future sales of all its products, but certainly did not predict a slow-down of the scale that Berger is looking at.

Earlier in the day, IDC warned that mobile phone average selling prices (ASPs) have already begun to drop this year. Competition for buyers will remain high, as consumers will be spending more carefully during the peak holiday period. However, slower growth in the third quarter and tight economic conditions will make 2009 slower and more competitive. http://tinyurl.com/gomo088

I don’t wanna show off no more…

Apologies to the musical “The Drowsy Chaperone,” but everyone seems to be “showing off” new devices this week. Vodafone UK is showing off their exclusive Blackberry Storm 9500s this week, debuting the first ever touchscreen Blackberry. Available on a range of high value price-plans, the device offers consumers and business customers easy access to voice and email, a range of social media applications, multimedia content, satellite navigation and many other services on the move. Customers who want to be the first in the UK to have a BlackBerry Storm can pre-order in Vodafone stores, online, through telesales, and account managers for business customers from November 14. http://tinyurl.com/gomo089

­Nokia shows off Ferrari branded phones. Nokia's luxury phone division, Vertu has announced the release of three new editions to its stable of Ferrari branded mobile phones. The Vertu Ascent Ti Ferrari Nero will comprise of 2009 limited edition handsets in sleek black leather, while the Vertu Ascent Ti Ferrari Rosso and Giallo will be produced in vibrant red and yellow respectively. A close working partnership between Vertu and Ferrari has enabled the material and design cues from the cars to be integrated seamlessly into the Vertu Ascent Ti. Frank Nuovo, chief of design for Vertu said: “The original design for the Ascent Ti was heavily influenced by the dynamic power of luxury sports cars and working closely with Ferrari has enabled us to progress this vision. The new Vertu Ascent Ti Ferrari editions are the definitive automotive-inspired handsets – bold, balanced and with the unmistakable character of the Prancing Horse.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo08a

Nokia has also shown off a range of affordable mobile phones and services which the company says are specifically desisgned for people in emerging markets. ­In addition to Nokia's lowest cost handset to date, as well as its first handset for emerging markets with an integrated digital music player, Nokia unveiled a range of mobile internet services aimed at rural customers. Estimated retail prices of the new devices range from €25 to €90, with several models expected to begin shipping in 2008. Nokia's suite of Internet services for emerging markets will be available beginning in 2009. The first services Nokia will offer in emerging markets will focus on email, agriculture and education, which based on consumer feedback, present the strongest demand in emerging markets. Mail on Ovi, which is enabled on Nokia Series 40 devices, offers the possibility to create an email account directly on the mobile phone without having to use a personal computer, giving millions of users the possibility to create their first internet identity and communicate in new ways. A trial of Mail on Ovi will launch in a few select markets by the end of November 2008. http://tinyurl.com/gomo08b

­Sony Ericsson has shown off another Walkman branded mobile phone, and a Wireless Home Audio System. The W705 features the same sound quality as the W980 Walkman phone which was rated "best audio experie­nce" in a trial conducted in Germany by TESTfactory. The W705 includes standard Walkman features such as the music recognition application TrackID, SensMe, for matching your mood to the music and Shake control to change tracks with the flick of your hand. "We're really proud of what we have achieved in 2008 with our market leading mobile music range, said Ben Padley, Head of Global Music Marketing at Sony Ericsson. “Combining premium design and best-in-class sound quality with super-fast access to a host of digital content whether it be from PlayNow arena or via the web, we really are offering the most feature-rich mobile music experience available today.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo08c

Maybe it was the same writer for all the device stories this week!

Masthead

This is issue #38 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• From Microsoft PDC
• Can Sanjay Jha turn Motorola around?
• Smartphones make Cher Wang her own fortune
• Verizon gets OK to purchase Alltel
• Is too much content bad?
• One in 10 mobile broadband subscribers feel they have been mis-sold
• Sony Ericsson gets the 007 treatment
• Masthead

From Microsoft PDC

The Microsoft Professional Developers Conference (PDC) was held in San Francisco last week and resulted in more than SalesForce.com crashing the party on bicycles to hand out T-Shirts. News start rolling out about mid-week and here are a few of the highlights.

Microsoft announced "significant new features" for its software-plus-services offering, aimed at synchronizing content between multiple desktop PCs and mobile devices. "Live Mesh" now offers dedicated Windows Mobile and Macintosh OS X (left) client software, is available worldwide, and includes a bevy of enhancements, says Microsoft. A core part of Live Mesh is "Live Desktop." This virtual, Windows-desktop-like web page provides registered users with access to 5GB of storage on a Microsoft server, from any web browser. In addition, via available client software, folders can be automatically synchronized with desktop computers and mobile devices, according to Microsoft. http://tinyurl.com/gomo072

Microsoft has scheduled the first quarter of 2009 for the first code drop of Silverlight for mobile devices. And while Silverlight for mobile will be missing some elements in the desktop that have people excited, Microsoft's working to pack in other features increasingly considered standard in the demanding world of mobile phones. Amit Chopra, Microsoft mobile development group senior program manager, told The Reg that Microsoft is working hard to include APIs for location and camera that aren't included in the current desktop edition of Silverlight. His goal is they appear in the CTP but made it clear if they won't be included if the effort of adding them delays the CTP or means final product ships too far after the release of Silverlight 2.0 - released this month. http://tinyurl.com/gomo073

There was an unexpected endorsement of Windows Mobile from Matthew Miller at ZD Net. A couple weeks ago Om Malik wrote an article in the NY Times titled, Why Windows Mobile is in Trouble, and most of the focus was on how the T-Mobile G1 and Google Android poses the biggest threat to Windows Mobile. The article gives an honest assessment of where Windows Mobile is at this time and concludes by stating that Windows Mobile is not a lost cause, but does need to take some actions to stay current and relevant in the mobile space. I agree with this bottom line, but also don’t think Microsoft has too much to worry about with the first Google Android device (the G1). I have been using the G1 for two weeks now and while it is great to see a mainstream Linux mobile OS, I am also heavily using my Treo Pro to get things done and stay in touch on the go. I don’t see a lot of people standing up and saying they prefer and like using Windows Mobile, but I know there are lots of people out there that do enjoy using this platform and I am one of them. I have read many comments online recently where people are trying to figure out if they want an iPhone or a new BlackBerry, but rarely hear that they are even considering a new Windows Mobile device. If you just look at the specs, Windows Mobile may be considered the most powerful and functional platform out there (S60 also may take this title). However, as Microsoft is learning it is not just about the specs, but today people want the overall user experience to awe them. Honestly, HTC and Samsung are working to bring this type of experience to people, but the message just doesn’t seem to reach people like it does with the iPhone. http://tinyurl.com/gomo074

Can Sanjay Jha turn Motorola around?

That's the question that everyone is asking after Motorola broke the bad news on its quarterly conference call Thursday that the handset business, which has been in serious trouble for more than two years, will likely not make a turnaround until early 2010. The problems are so grave at the company, which reported huge losses for the third quarter, that Motorola is delaying its planned spin-off of the handset division and restructuring the entire business in the hope that it can finally create products that will excite consumers.

"We're either witnessing a slow death here, or the darkest night before the dawn," said Sam Wilson, senior analyst at JMP Securities. "But one thing is clear this is a company royally screwed up in a brutally competitive market. And it won't be easy to turn things around."

In an effort to breathe new life into its handset line up, Motorola is betting the farm on two mobile operating systems: Windows Mobile and Google's Android. Co-CEO Jha, who was hired in August to take over the handset business and help spin it into its own company, said on the company's earnings call that Motorola will dump at least four operating systems, including Symbian, to focus on developing products using Android and Windows Mobile. Mid-tier phones will run Android, while the company will use Windows Mobile for its high-end smartphones. The problem for Motorola is that it will take time to make this transition. Jha said he doesn't expect an Android phone on the market until the 2009 holiday season. http://tinyurl.com/gomo075

Smartphones make Cher Wang her own fortune

Cher Wang is one of the most powerful female executives in technology whom you have never heard of. The company she founded, the HTC Corporation, makes one out of every six smartphones sold in the United States, most of which are marketed under brands like Palm and Verizon. Last week the iPhone's most likely rival, the T-Mobile G1, designed by HTC and powered by Google's Android operating system, went on sale. The attention is something HTC has never sought. And the same can be said of Wang.

Cher Wang is chairwoman of not one, but two companies: HTC and VIA Technologies, a developer of silicon chip technology, where her husband, Wen Chi Chen, has been chief executive since 1992. Forbes estimates the couple's wealth at $3.5 billion. HTC's revenue in 2007 reached 118.6 billion Taiwanese dollars, or about $3.7 billion. But Wang said she was not defined by wealth — either her own or her parents'.

When HTC was founded in 1997, the company made notebook computers. Her husband recalled that a few years after the company started, Wang and her partners were forced to make a choice: focus on notebooks or shift gears to hand-held devices, a market that showed signs of promise. Wang urged they shift to cellphones.

"HTC had strong engineers developing notebooks," said Chen. "But it was a volatile business with lots of competitors. She saw that clearly and pushed for the other instead."

It was a smart decision. HTC's revenue tallied about $1 billion in the most recent quarter, a 29 percent increase from a year earlier. "She is very demanding in one sense," said Chen. "If she wants something changed, she'll speak up about it." http://tinyurl.com/gomo076

Verizon gets OK to purchase Alltel

The Department of Justice approved Verizon Wireless’ $28 billion purchase of Alltel Communications L.L.C., subject to required divestitures of wireless assets in 100 markets encompassing 22 states. “The divestitures required are necessary to protect wireless customers and are among the most extensive required by the department in a wireless case,” said Thomas Barnett, assistant attorney general in charge of the antitrust division. DoJ said the divestitures, included in a settlement requiring court approval, cover the entire states of North Dakota and South Dakota, major portions of Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, Utah and Wyoming, and sections of Alabama, Arizona, California, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. http://tinyurl.com/gomo077

Is too much choice in content bad?

Google Inc. is the latest player in the app-store game, launching its Android Market last week for early adopters with the new G1 from T-Mobile USA Inc. The storefront launched with several dozen free applications — it won’t support paid offerings until early next year — such as MySpace Mobile, Namco’s Pac-Man and a song-identification program from Shazam. The effort is loosely modeled on Apple Inc.’s App Store, of course, which launched a few months ago and last week delivered its 200 millionth download. Research In Motion Ltd. looks to be next into the space, unveiling plans last week to launch its own storefront in March, and Microsoft Corp. is said to be launching its Skymarket outlet next year.

There are some important — if subtle — differences between the three distribution channels, however. Apple takes a 30% cut of App Store revenue, leaving developers with 70%, while RIM allows its partners to keep 80% of revenues. Google, meanwhile, is staying out of rev-share arrangements, allowing carriers and developers to cut their own deals. And Apple has aggressively managed its store, occasionally pulling controversial content, while Google — for now, at least — promises an unfettered marketplace where developers can easily upload any offering. (Google can leverage a “kill switch,” however, removing offerings remotely if it chooses to; RIM has yet to say whether it will manage its store.)

While third-party storefronts are nothing new to mobile — Handango, Handmark and others have long served smartphone users — the high-profile outlets are a threat to carriers in several ways, of course. Not only do they present another face to the consumer, they spur loyalty to a handset or operating system — not to the operator. In addition, the Apple and BlackBerry stores leave carriers out of the content-revenue loop entirely, handling everything from retailing to distribution to billing.

And the app stores face other hurdles, as well. The rise of smartphone platforms has created a fragmented market where developers must choose which platform into which to pour resources and build applications. That fact was evidenced last week when Android debuted with several dozen offerings — about 550 fewer than the App Store launched with. Perhaps most important, though, is the fact that none of the newcomers have any real experience as a retailer of mobile software. Apple’s user experience is highly regarded, of course, but the company is only beginning to learn the mobile-application world, and both Google and RIM have many lessons to learn in the nascent space. Which may give carriers wide-open opportunities to establish their own storefronts and continue to own their customers. http://tinyurl.com/gomo078

One in 10 mobile broadband subscribers feel they have been mis-sold

New research commissioned by UK mobile operator, O2 shows that over one in ten mobile broadband users feel that they were mis-sold on what it offered. ­The main source of irritation is that consumers feel that they were deceived on the cost of the service with nearly a third complaining that the ongoing cost was higher than expected. One-fifth were also upset that they were unable to use mobile broadband where they wanted it despite being told by providers that there would be coverage. Another 13 percent were frustrated that there was no returns guarantee if the service wasn’t right for them and around half wanted inclusive Wi-Fi as standard.

On the back of this, O2 has announced a total refresh of its mobile broadband offering. The refresh includes making it easier for customers to be certain of their ongoing spend including a price reduction on core mobile broadband tariffs, the launch of a new coverage checker and a 50-day Happiness Guarantee which allows customers, who purchased directly from O2, to return the device to O2 within 50 days of purchase with no termination fees being charged and any costs for purchasing the device being refunded. http://tinyurl.com/gomo079

Sony Ericsson gets the 007 treatment

Reckon yourself a bit of a James Bond? Well Sony Ericsson think that they have come up with a phone that is fit for a would-be spy. The limited edition Titanium silver version of the C902 Cyber-shot is now available only on O2 and is none other than the phone that Daniel Craig will be plotting on in the long awaited Quantum of Solace movie, which is launching later this month. The phone was originally announced in August, but is now available via O2 in time for the movie. "The new mobile phone will make sure you are ready for any challenge, immersing you into the world of a secret agent with interactive 007 content and a spy-style game", claims Sony Ericsson. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07a

At the same time, Sony Ericsson has announced the upgrade to the C902, the C905 Cyber-shot with an 8 megapixel camera instead of 5. In the just-released commercial for the C905, professional photographer Matt Stuart takes photos and posts gigantic prints around the city. http://tinyurl.com/gomo07b.

Apparently the Xperia X1 on which Sony Ericsson spent a fortune by producing its own movie trailers, wasn’t shiny enough for Bond!

Masthead

This is issue #37 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• Third quarter reports and economic forecasts
• Identity proof required for cell phone purchase?
• My phone, my friend
• For handset junkies everywhere
• Masthead

Third quarter reports and economic forecasts

The third quarter of the year has closed and financial reports are reflecting what we’ve all seen in our own pocketbooks. Economic uncertainty and turmoil in the financial services field have increased the likelihood that tech spending will slow even more than executives had expected just a week or two ago, analysts say. "All the vendors are struggling with a major slowdown in tech spending on both the business side and consumer side," said Bill Whyman, technology analyst at International Strategy & Investment.

"Some companies are still trying to put a good face on things," he said, "but the reality is we are likely to have very, very weak spending in 2009. We believe that tech revenue growth will fall sharply over the next three to four quarters." http://tinyurl.com/gomo065

Those reporting earnings this week seemed to reflect some of this caution amidst optimistic returns. Microsoft reported record earnings in its first fiscal quarter of $15 billion, a 9% increase over the same period last year. "In a challenging economic environment, the first-quarter results exhibit the strength and diversity of our business model," said Chris Liddell, chief financial officer of Microsoft. Microsoft’s business outlook reflects a balance of risks and the likelihood of a continued economic slowdown. The trends seen late in the first-quarter are now forecasted to continue, whereas previous expectations were for the economy to improve in the second half of the fiscal year. http://tinyurl.com/gomo066

On a note of celebration for the giant, it was just six years ago last week that Microsoft shipped its first Windows smartphone. "Microsoft has spent the last 27 years creating software that improves the way people live, work and communicate," said Steve Ballmer, on that historic occasion. "Now, we're able to deliver a familiar and powerful software experience on a mobile phone to people around the world. Smartphone redefines what people can expect from their phone, offering them voice, e-mail, MSN® Messenger or Short Message Service (SMS). We're very excited to bring the Smartphone to market." http://tinyurl.com/gomo067 The enthusiasm continues.

AT&T is enthusiastic with the report of record earnings and record gain of new subscribers, based largely on their sale of Apple iPhones. The carrier added more customers in one quarter than it ever has before. AT&T Mobility reported 1.7 million net subscriber additions, a 40% increase from third-quarter 2007. A big chunk of that growth is due to the 3G iPhone launch during the timeframe. The carrier posted 2.4 million iPhone activations and 40% of them were new customers. The carrier also said having the iPhone in its ranks brings in more higher-value customers with a 1.6 times higher average monthly revenues per user (ARPU). During its conference call, AT&T Mobility said devices such as the iPhone and other smartphones are key to growth and success at this point. More than two-thirds of the carrier’s net adds came from customers choosing an integrated device. http://tinyurl.com/gomo068

CEO Steve Jobs joined Tuesday’s conference call to assure investors that Apple Inc. will maintain its gross profit margins despite the economic downturn. If Apple’s customer base is under financial strain, consumers are likely to postpone an Apple purchase, rather than seek a cheaper brand, Jobs told analysts. And the CEO delivered news of “a spectacular performance” by the iPhone 3G, which sold 6.9 million units worldwide. Apple executives declined to give a breakdown between sales in the United States and internationally, but said international sales were significant. The company earned revenue of $7.9 billion in their 4^th fiscal quarter, and net profit of $1.14 billion, up from $6.2 billion and $904 million, respectively, in the year-ago quarter. Apple’s gross margin reached 34.7%, up from 33.6% in the year-ago quarter.

As iPhone ramped in more than 50 countries — up from 6 the prior quarter — it moved more than six times the number sold in the year-ago quarter. “We sold more phones than RIM,” Jobs said. Asked by an analyst whether Apple’s strategy of having essentially one SKU (stock-keeping unit) in an industry that’s 10 times the size of the PC market concerned Jobs. “Well, I wasn’t alive back then,” Jobs said. “But Babe Ruth had just one homerun, and just hit it over and over again.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo069 So it appears we can expect more of the same!

Samsung’s net profit fell by 44% in its 3rd quarter, however, mobile phones continued to be a bright spot, even in the economic downturn. The company sold 51.8 million handsets in the quarter and expects year-end numbers to top 200 million. http://tinyurl.com/gomo06a The results appeared to reflect Samsung’s push into emerging markets, aggressive handset pricing — possibly the factor cited earlier this year by Nokia Corp., which characterized the move as “unsustainable” — and massive marketing efforts. Samsung’s overall revenue reached $13.4 billion, up 15% over the year-ago quarter, while overall net income reached $850 million, down 44% over the year-ago quarter. Though Samsung’s telecom business — led by handsets — was tops in sales, that division’s operating profit was down 15% year-on-year and down 36% quarter-on-quarter. Handset revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 27% over the year-ago quarter. http://tinyurl.com/gomo06b

Identity proof required for cell phone purchase?

How would you feel about having to prove your identity and register with the government in order to have a cell phone? Wireless Federation reported that Guyana parliament has passed two most controversial bills in the parliament. One of the bills will authorize wiretapping and force cell-phone providers to register clients, as part of a push to fight crime. The second bill will require Jamaica-based Digicel and U.S.-owned Guyana Telephone & Telegraph (GT&T) to register whoever subscribes to them. Both companies have competed aggressively for clients after Digicel entered the market last year, and they often have promotional SIM-card giveaways in urban areas. Company representatives have said the proposed law would force them to end this practice or require copies of passports or identification cards. The approval comes as members of Guyana's two main opposition parties accuse legislators of violating citizens' privacy and worry the government will try to abuse the privilege. http://tinyurl.com/gomo06c

Lest you think this is something that is limited to a small South American country near the Caribbean, take note of this news from the U.K. The bother of choosing between an 18-month contract or a high up-front price may soon be the least of your worries when buying a new mobile phone, because you may soon be required to prove your identity before you're allowed a new handset. The government is said to be drawing up plans to force all UK mobile phone buyers to provide some form of identification, such as a passport or identity card - see where this is going? - before being be allowed to take delivery of, say, a shiny new iPhone or BlackBerry Storm. When you get your phone, the fact will be recorded by the Government, which will presumably make an explicit link between phone numbers and users' ID documents. A spokeswoman from the office of Richard Thomas, the Government’s Information Commissioner, told the Times that the requirement would apply to both contract and pay-as-you-go phones. http://tinyurl.com/gomo06d

My phone, my friend

We shouldn’t be surprised at efforts to tie our identity to our phones. Previous issues of Going Mobile have cited studies of how people feel about their devices, the physical distress they undergo if separated from them, and other social identity phenomena. ­The internet and cell phones have become central components of modern family life. Among all household types, the traditional nuclear family has the highest rate of technology usage and ownership. A national survey of 2,252 adults by the Pew Internet & American Life Project has found that households with a married couple and minor children are more likely than other household types—such as single adults, homes with unrelated adults, or couples without children—to have cell phones and use the internet. The survey shows that these high rates of technology ownership affect family life. In particular, cell phones allow family members to stay more regularly in touch even when they are not physically together. Moreover, many members of married-with-children households view material online together. http://tinyurl.com/gomo06e

­New research from US operator, Sprint Nextel confirms that the under-30 crowd is definitely texting in mass, and they're driving their parents to text, too. The number of adults who are texting has risen from just two years ago, when a 2006 Pew Research study cited that 13 percent of adults ages 50-64 used the text messaging function on their mobile phone. The Sprint study reveals that now 20 percent of adults ages 55-64 send text messages. Seventy-six percent of adults ages 55-64 who are texting are sending messages to their children. According to 2007 U.S. Census Bureau data, 57 percent of 50- to 64-year-olds have children ages 18-24. With those kids away at college or living in different cities, texting is a fast and efficient way for parents to stay in touch. According to a survey conducted by Opinion Research, a text is far more likely to elicit a quick response than voice mail. In fact, those under the age of 30 are four times more likely to respond within minutes to a text message compared to a voice mail, and 91 percent respond to a text message within one hour. Adults 30 and older are also quick to text -- and are twice as likely to respond within minutes to a text message as compared to a voice message. http://tinyurl.com/gomo06f

Of course, if we really wanted fast response, we’d be using a 130-year-old technology. Jay Leno demonstrated on his Tonight Show that two old geezers could send a message and translate it via Morse Code faster than two teens could text the same message. The message was, “I saved a bundle on my car insurance.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo070

For handset junkies everywhere

Motorola Inc., still struggling to return to sustained profitability, has entered the luxury handset market, following Nokia’s lead. This week the company announced the Aura handset for those who believe the Razr has lost its flair. The new handset will set you back $2,000. The launch’s timing aside — for many, the price tag may clash a bit with headlines of financial disasters sweeping the globe — the Aura appeared to reflect Motorola’s determination to make a design-oriented comeback of sorts. Indeed, the luxury phone segment is projected to garner as much as $11 billion by next year, according to ABI Research. That figure is expected to nearly quadruple in five years, the market research firm reported in August.

The profitable, luxury handset market already is being exploited by Motorola’s rival, Nokia Corp., whose luxury-line subsidiary, Vertu, is long established. Motorola, in fact, has already dabbled in the sector with a gold-plated Dolce & Gabbana Razr v3i, which sold at about $300 at the height of Razr-mania. In many cases, handset vendors have teamed with established luxury brands to include mobile phones in the latter’s product lines. (The LG Prada is an example.) But Motorola’s latest foray appeared targeted at the low-end of the high-end market. The Aura’s $2,000 price tag pales in comparison to Vertu handsets that sell for up to $300,000. The Russian firm of JSC Ancort appeared to set the record when it once offered (no word on sales) a platinum-cased, gem-encrusted handset for $1.3 million. http://tinyurl.com/gomo071

Masthead

This is issue #36 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• Kill switch on Android?
• Motorola rolls out the Krave touchscreen/flip phone combo
• Yahoo! expands mobile voice search
• AT&T Mobility looks beyond handsets
• Academics predict growing cybercrime sophistication
• Masthead

Kill switch on Android?

An uproar erupted when iPhone users discovered a so-called remote kill switch on their phones—will it spur the same reaction in users of the G1, the first Android phone? In the Android Market terms of service, Google expressly says that it might remotely remove an application from a user's phone. "Google may discover a product that violates the developer distribution agreement ... in such an instance, Google retains the right to remotely remove those applications from your device at its sole discretion," the terms, linked to from the phone, read.

Android users might be more receptive to Google's remote kill switch than iPhone users were to Apple's for a couple of reasons. First, Google is being upfront about it. Apple didn't confirm the capability for the iPhone until days after a developer discovered it. In addition, Google says that if it does remotely remove an application, it will try to get users their money back, a question that iPhone users have wondered about in the case of an iPhone application recall. Google said that it will make "reasonable efforts to recover the purchase price of the product ... from the original developer on your behalf." If Google fails to get the full amount back, it will divide what it gets among affected users. Google may have more need to use a kill switch than Apple. That's because Apple vets applications before putting them into its Apps Store. Anything goes in Google's Android Market, opening the chances of malicious or otherwise unwanted applications appearing in the market. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05f

If only I believed in the benevolent watchdogs of society and technology.

Motorola rolls out the Krave touchscreen/flip phone combo

The Krave has a 2.8-inch touch screen and an interactive clear flip screen on top of it. The design is reminiscent of Motorola's Ming line of smartphones, and users can get one-touch access to features and services without opening the phone. "The clear, touch-enabled flip over the large, high-resolution touch-screen is nothing like you've seen and yet it's totally intuitive," said Ken Hallman, VP of Motorola's mobile devices, in a statement.

Users can make calls via the speaker or a Bluetooth headset without opening up the cover, or they can open it up to get the feel of a flip phone. The handset is a consumer-oriented device, but it does have access to Web-based and POP3 e-mail, 3G connectivity, and an HTML browser. The Krave has a full slate of multimedia options, as it supports the carrier's V Cast music, video, and TV services. Motorola's handset sports a 2-megapixel camera that can record video, and it can upload photos over the air to Web sites. There's also a standard headphone jack, visual voice-mail support, on-board VZ Navigator for directions, a virtual landscape QWERTY keyboard with haptic feedback, and an accelerometer. http://tinyurl.com/gomo060

Yahoo! expands mobile voice search

Users of some Nokia S60 handsets like the N95 can now use voice recognition with Yahoo's oneSearch 2.0 home-screen shortcut. Once it's installed, users can speak to find stock quotes, sports scores, and more. Yahoo said it also includes search assist, spelling suggestions, and real-time related concepts for more refined search results. Additionally, Yahoo Go 3.0 will integrate the voice search, and it can be downloaded onto select BlackBerry and Nokia S40 and S60 devices. The company said the voice-recognition technology is currently only available in the United States, the United Kingdom, India, Singapore, the Philippines, and Canada. Yahoo is also making a play for mobile developers with its Blueprint platform, and said it will enable content creators to write an application once and have it run on a variety of mobile operating systems. The company introduced the platform in September, and used it to build and optimize the oneConnect app for iPhone. http://tinyurl.com/gomo061

AT&T Mobility looks beyond handsets

Thanks to a new executive position, AT&T Mobility is attempting to expand the range of gadgets its network interacts with — and counter similar efforts by its rivals. The carrier announced the appointment of Glen Lurie to president of AT&T’s newly created Emerging Devices, National Distribution and Resale operation. Lurie will lead the carrier’s initiative to move beyond handsets and integrate new devices and applications onto AT&T Mobility’s network — including personal computers, mobile Internet devices (or mini computers), in-car entertainment and navigation systems, cameras and machine-to-machine communications solutions.

Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel Corp. have been talking up their attempts to open up their networks to a plethora of devices. Verizon Wireless last year announced a program designed for those looking to get their inventions and devices onto the carrier’s wireless network, while Sprint Nextel has long stated the goal of its mobile WiMAX push has been to host many different devices, not just handsets. AT&T Mobility said its re-organization is a key component of its business strategy to grow wireless penetration and develop new distribution models. http://tinyurl.com/gomo062

Academics predict growing cybercrime sophistication

Data—even on platforms such as mobile phones—will continue to be the primary motive for future cybercrime. That's one of the key findings in a survey released Wednesday by the Georgia Tech Information Security Center (GTISC). The report, called the GTISC Emerging Cyber Threats Report for 2009, outlined the top five areas of security concern and risk for consumer and enterprise internet users for the coming year. The GTISC said it expects threats to rise and evolve in the areas of malware, botnets, cyberwarfare, VoIP and mobile devices. It also foresees the continued sophistication of the criminal underground economy, in which cybercrooks peddle malware-for-sale kits and other programs. Risks are likely to target traditional computing environments and mobile applications, the report concludes. In fact, the researchers said they expect to see more mobile phone malware as a way for herders to expand their botnets, or networks of compromised computers. http://tinyurl.com/gomo063

On the other hand, criminals seem to still be dumb enough to get caught. For example, a suspected robber was arrested after he used a stolen cell phone to call a relative. According to police, a 68-year-old tourist was gambling at the Silver Legacy Resort downtown on Oct. 7 when he was struck in the head and knocked to the ground by a man who took his fanny pack that contained the victim's cell phone. The suspect used the phone to call a family member. When the relative tried to call back later, he instead got the victim who had reactivated the number on a new phone. The family member gave the victim the suspect's name. The suspect was arrested on charges of robbery and an enhancement for crimes against the elderly. http://tinyurl.com/gomo064

Masthead

This is issue #35 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• 25^th anniversary issue
• Handset sales up and down
• It’s just so wrong
• Cruel fate awaits unwanted cell phones
• Masthead

25^th Anniversary Issue

Welcome to the 25^th anniversary issue of Going Mobile. No, it’s not Going Mobile’s 25^th anniversary, it is the 25^th anniversary of the first commercial cellular call. The call was placed on the 13^th of October 1983 to the grandson of Alexander Graham Bell in Germany and came from the president of Ameritech Mobile Communications at a ceremony held outside Soldier Field in Chicago. The call launched the first city-wide commercial cellular system.

You might be interested to know what kind of device that call was made on. Weighing nearly two pounds and 13 inches long, the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X used on that historic day had only 30 minutes of talk time, a far cry from the sleek, thin multi-purpose wireless handsets of today.

Today’s teens – the first generation born into a wireless society – will largely drive the next wave of innovation of the cell phone. According to the CTIA- Harris Interactive “Teenagers: A Generation Unplugged” online survey released in September 2008, teens envision future wireless devices that better fit their lifestyle. Teens also have set high goals for the mobile industry and are looking to mobility to fundamentally reshape the future. Among their preferences, they want phones to guarantee secured data access to the user only, present opportunities to be educated anywhere in the world, and bring users closer to global issues impacting their world. http://tinyurl.com/gomo059

Reports indicate they are also looking for more than 30 minutes talk time.

Handset sales up and down

The global market for cell phones should grow at rates much slower than expected next year as consumers delay buying new ones because of deepening economic concerns, according to forecasts from analysts. Maynard Um, an analyst with UBS, halved his forecast for 2009 global handset growth to 3 percent, pointing to particular weakness in Europe and North America. Ehud Gelblum, an analyst with JPMorgan, was more optimistic but still reduced his expectations for 2009 handset growth to 6.1 percent from 8.1 percent. Gelblum said he had based his outlook on consumer reluctance to upgrade phones, particularly in Europe, and "more modest" growth in China, one of the fastest-expanding mobile markets. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05a

At the same time, Tariff Consultancy indicates that in 34 emerging markets, penetration rates are forecast to rise from 46% in 2008 to 95% in 2013 according to a new survey. Already subscribers in the 34 countries total over 2.1 billion users (based on operator statistics as of mid-2008) which accounts for half of the world’s mobile users (based on ITU estimates). By 2013 the 34 countries will have grown to 4.3 billion mobile users and will account for around two thirds of global mobile users. By 2013, Iraq is forecast to have the highest mobile penetration rate of the 34 countries. In spite of the currently prohibitive cost of 3G mobile handsets, the networks being built out in these countries are all 3G and HSDPA. High-spending user groups in those markets are using 3G for VoIP and peer-to-peer applications and as an alternative to land-based broadband. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05b

It’s just so wrong

There is so much that is “not right” about this next story that I’m not even sure where to begin commenting. Police in Newark, Ohio have arrested a 15-year-old girl on charges of juvenile child pornography. Not rescued a girl—arrested her. She allegedly sent nude cell phone photos of herself to some classmates. Police are reportedly contemplating filing charges against the classmates for possession of child pornography. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05c

It is still too early to get further information on the AP story that was picked up by nearly every newspaper and television station in the country over the weekend. No further reports have been filed. But the premise bears examination. At what point can laws designed to protect a class of people be used to prosecute that class of people? As the father of a 15-year-old girl, I can’t begin to express my conflicting opinions about this. The young woman should be made aware of how serious it is to send photos of herself, in any state of dress, out to the public, and even if this was only to a boyfriend or girlfriend, the chances of distribution of the photo are astronomical. But arrested? Most laws regarding this and other juvenile exploitation crimes are written to prevent adults from preying on children. And most at least discount the severity if it is child to child. My opinion? A law is only as intelligent as the people enforcing it.

Or, if you would like, the people exploiting it, as in the case of Nebraska’s “Safe Haven” law. Safe Haven laws are designed to protect children from abusive or dangerous situations by allowing an adult to drop off the child at a hospital with no questions asked and not be accused of abandoning the child. This week a mother from Michigan drove 1300 miles to Nebraska to drop off her 13-year-old son at a Nebraska hospital. Unlike other similar state laws, the Nebraska law does not require the person dropping off the child to be a parent, nor does it specify an age-limit or residency for the child. Last week a 14-year-old girl from Iowa was dropped off at a Nebraska hospital by her grandparents. She has since been returned to her family. Some state officials are worrying that the State’s broadly written law could make it a dumping ground for unwanted children. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05d

Though not strictly a mobile communications issue, the well-being of children is an issue for everyone to be concerned with. We have shown twice this week that “the law” may not hold all the answers.

A cruel fate for unwanted cellphones

It is a completely different class than the fate of unwanted children, but we must mention the fate of unwanted cell phones. According to the Chicago Tribune newspaper, 100 million cell phones are retired each year in the United States alone, as people replace them with new, spiffier models. Some of these unwanted portable phones get stuck in drawers, where they repose unnoticed, sometimes for years. Others are tossed into the trash. That's bad for the environment, because they end up in landfills, where their batteries can leak harmful heavy metals into the ecosystem.

What happens to the obsolete phones that are turned in isn't pretty. They end up at a company like Sims Recycling Solutions in Chicago, which, the Tribune reports, processes 91,000 kilos of cell phones a year. Sims removes the batteries and crunches the phones to bits, and then melts the shards and rubble in furnaces. What comes out is an amalgam of metals - plus slag from the plastic and glass and impurities. The metal amalgam is sent to a different recycler that can extract valuable copper and aluminum and a little bit of gold for reuse in other electronic products. The slag goes to yet another recycling facility, where it's fashioned into things like sound-barrier walls that one sees along highways and around industrial plants.

But according to the Environmental Protection Agency, only 10 percent of discarded cell phones are recycled and reborn. That means there are millions and millions of them still passing the days in limbo in those dark, disregarded drawers. http://tinyurl.com/gomo05e

So here is a reminder that October is a good time to recycle your used cell phones, digital cameras, and digital music players. Several companies like AT&T have recycling bins available this month at their stores.

Masthead

This is issue #34 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• Web functions key to mobile phone growth, says NTT Docomo
• Nokia Tube
• Sony Ericsson made Windows nicer
• Microsoft lands first mobile ad deal
• One in five 2^nd hand mobiles have sensitive info on them
• Masthead

Web functions key to mobile-phone growth, says NTT Docomo

Kiyoyuki Tsujimura, executive vice president of Japan’s NTT Docomo, delivered a keynote address at the CEATEC this week stating that growth in the mobile phone industry will depend more and more on "quality" Internet-based services based on "open" operating systems that allow handset makers to market their devices globally. Japan has reached a saturated market of 100 million mobile users of which 90% are Internet users and 80% are already on 3G networks. NTT DoCoMo, previously confined to the uniquely Japanese iMode development environment, now claims compatibility for its mobile handsets with Linux OS, with Google's Android and with Symbian OS.

For handset makers in this brave new world, development costs will drop, as any handset can be used by any operator, "More Nokia or Samsung handsets in Japan, or more Japanese handsets in other countries." It might also be possible, he added, to affordably customize handsets to the needs of each user, creating a package of applications the user prefers while leaving out any that he or she does not want. http://tinyurl.com/gomo04e

As Android, BlackBerry, the iPhone and a host of rivals all fight for share, it's clear that market success is all about applications and the underlying platform, says Judy Mott of Internetnews.com. With such frenzied competition, how do handset makers expect to break free from their rivals? The answer is in the platform, which sets the stage for advanced functions such as PC-like multimedia support and third-party application development -- features that industry observers see as critical to success. "Software is changing the soul of the smartphone and making devices much more special," Carolina Milanesi, research director for mobile devices technology at Gartner, told InternetNews.com. And with platforms becoming the key to next-generation applications, there is a continuing debate over whether open source or proprietary systems will ultimately provide the most fertile environment. http://tinyurl.com/gomo052

HTC is anticipates selling between 1.5 million and 2 million phones powered by Google’s Android operating system by the end of 2009, media reported. T-Mobile USA is making public the G1 in the United States on Oct. 22, and HTC expects to sell between 400,000 and 500,000 units in the fourth quarter. The projections of HTC’s sales are quite below in comparison to those of Apple’s iPhone 3G. It is reported that Motorola may be launching Android phones in the near future, further boosting the OS’s market presence. HTC’s CEO said that the G1 and Android will push development and applications of the networks for handsets in the future. http://tinyurl.com/gomo054

Nokia Tube

Nokia won't just beat Research in Motion to the touch screen punch but will be making a statement about its mobile device services strategy as it launched "Tube," its newest smartphone, in London last Friday. According to one research analyst who requested anonymity, Tube will illustrate how the Finnish handset maker will be utilizing mobile services going forward -- a competitive aspect that could push smartphone a peg above Google's G1 that debuted last week. Such differentiation would surely help Nokia in its quest to grab greater market share and traction in the US. It will also ratchet up what's clearly an already competitive industry headed into the lucrative holiday shopping season. http://tinyurl.com/gomo050

Nokia also announced last week, the launch of Qt Extended 4.4, a complete mobile and embedded development platform based on the open source Qt toolkit. It is designed with a modular architecture that provides building blocks for assembling a Linux-based software stack for various embedded devices ranging from phones to set-top boxes. http://tinyurl.com/gomo051

Sony Ericsson made Windows nicer

With Sony Ericsson's inaugural Windows Mobile device set to be launched in the coming days, the handset maker has revealed that it had to convince Microsoft to embrace plans to make the Windows interface more user-friendly. Sony Ericsson hopes the Microsoft device, first announced at the Mobile World Congress event in February, will appeal to 'fast living' professional users who want to be able to use their device for work and play. Keisuke Kakoi, head of product and application planning, convergence unit, said Microsoft's initial response to Sony Ericsson's plan to skin the OS with panels was not a positive one: "I still remember in the very beginning phase we disclosed our panel concept a little bit to Microsoft and [the] first reaction from Microsoft was 'no, no, no! Please stay [with the] Microsoft way, Windows way'. But we showed the panel application, [and] then Microsoft top management suddenly changed to, 'Yes, OK, you should do that'."

"They change their mind quickly. So I think this is one very simple example. We are now very much closely working with Microsoft, [and] they very much...understand our strategy with the panel concept. We are getting lots of help from them as well." http://tinyurl.com/gomo053

We spoke before of Sony-Ericsson’s movie trailer teasers promoting the imminent release of the Xperia X1 smartphone. The campaign is now in the seventh episode and continues to paint intrigue and suspense. http://tinyurl.com/gomo03a

Microsoft lands first mobile ad deal

Microsoft Corp. announced its first ad-syndication deal in the United States, touting a pact to deliver display ads on CNBC’s mobile Web site. The deal, which stems from last December’s online-advertising collaboration between the two companies, will see Microsoft serve as the exclusive third-party provider of ads to CNBC’s mobile audience of 1.1 million unique monthly visitors. Ford Motor Co. has signed on as an advertiser, the companies said, and campaigns will conform to Mobile Marketing Association guidelines. “CNBC brings premium financial ad inventory that enhances our existing offering,” said Brian Arbogast, VP of mobile services at Microsoft, “allowing us to attract and grow mobile advertising opportunities for our advertisers.” http://tinyurl.com/gomo055

Nokia, too, announced last week it has added a number of European publisher sites to its Media Network, part of its Nokia Interactive Advertising offering. The firm has high hopes for location-based mobile advertising in relation to its expanding network. "For the Media Network, we don't look for volume of inventory, we look for quality," said David Barker, director and head of publishers and partnerships, EMEA at Nokia, stressing the importance of working with premium publishers. We have cherry-picked the best mobile sites out there, with a focus on business orientated publishers. Mobile advertising can be very tacky, but we look for well trusted publishers and brands." http://tinyurl.com/gomo056

Chinese mobile advertising agency, Madhouse says that it has served over 2.3 billion targeted mobile ad impressions using its MadServing system during the first half of this year, nearly five times the number of total impressions delivered in 2007. Madhouse says that it increases the effectiveness of advertising campaigns by optimizing ad versions and accurately quantifying and managing the frequency of marketing material shown, clicked, or downloaded to every unique mobile user. Mobile ads served by Madhouse may be optimized for mobile phones with different screen resolutions for the over 2,000 phone models in China today. http://tinyurl.com/gomo057

One in five 2^nd hand mobiles have sensitive info on them

Just as AT&T and other organizations start their big push to recycle older mobile phones (four out of five estimated to be in desk or dresser drawers), new research from BT, the University of Glamorgan, and Edith Cowan University revealed that a significant number of mobiles that are bought second hand still contain sensitive company and personal information. The devices containing the greatest volume of information were discarded Blackberry devices which in a number of cases were left unprotected, despite having security features like encryption built in. Forty-three per cent of those examined contained information from which individuals, their organization or specific personal data could be identified creating a significant threat to both the individual and the organization. It is thought that this is the result of the increasing adoption and use of this type of device by organizations to support increasingly mobile workforces. http://tinyurl.com/gomo058

So, recycle that old device, but wipe it first. Make sure your contacts, favorites, phone number, and security codes are removed.

Masthead

This is issue #33 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 300+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.

In this issue

• Quiet week
• Movie trailers
• Does anyone use this feature?
• Masthead

Quiet week

It was a relatively quiet week in the mobile industry, unless you want to know who won the Indonesian network contract for Axis 3G network, (Huawei http://tinyurl.com/gomo04c) or who won the Qualcomm/Broadcom patent lawsuit, (Broadcom http://tinyurl.com/gomo04d for $19.7 million). So in spite of being a day late, it is also a short Going Mobile Newsletter.

Movie trailers

We spoke before of Sony-Ericsson’s movie trailer teasers promoting the imminent release of the Xperia X1 smartphone. The campaign is now in the fifth episode and continues to paint intrigue and suspense. http://tinyurl.com/gomo03a So, if mobile phones can use movies to launch a big promotional campaign, why shouldn’t movies use mobile phones? In "Eagle Eye," the Dreamworks/Paramount Pictures thriller set for release this weekend, the lead characters are driven to extreme acts by a mysterious woman who contacts them via their mobile phones. So what better way to promote the movie than through a mobile-marketing campaign? http://tinyurl.com/gomo049

Created for Paramount by Millennial Media, if you opt in to the campaign, you will be sent a voice message and then text messages by the same mysterious woman in the movie, promising all will be revealed on September 26 (the movie’s release date). "This groundbreaking campaign is an excellent example of how advertisers can creatively use today's mobile technologies to connect their content to consumers," said Michael Rosenberg, manager of national advertising at Paramount, in a release. "We are delivering a highly distinctive theatrical marketing vehicle which brings the 'Eagle Eye' film experience to its consumers in a new and exciting way." http://tinyurl.com/gomo04a

So, perhaps when we talk about three-screen presence (PC, Mobile, TV) we should be expanding the reference to include that 4^th, very big screen?

Does anyone use this feature?

For years I have brashly proclaimed that buyers choose a mobile phone for two reasons: To make phone calls and… You fill in the blank. The “and” could be SMS, email, music, calendar, or an alarm clock. I admit that as the market matures, the number of things a single user wants out of their device has probably increased, but I still believe that buying decision is made based on very few features.

So it comes as no surprise to me that a new study by WDSGlobal, a specialist in support and device management, reveals that only 20% of a phone’s services and features are typically used by a customer, and up to a quarter remain completely undiscovered. “For the most part, users struggled to list more than half a dozen services featured on their current mobile phone. Regular usage was largely confined to voice, text messaging, address book, camera and alarm clock. Users do dip into additional services, such as the music player, Internet and games, but we found that a large proportion of features remained completely undiscovered,” says Doug Overton, vice president of consulting and analysis at WDSGlobal. Service discovery, the company suggests, is now one of the most challenging barriers to mobile service adoption. http://tinyurl.com/gomo04b

Since there is so little news that I want to highlight this week, I will indulge myself in some opinion. Feature use, like a good murder mystery, requires motive, means, and opportunity. In his great keynote address at HCI Mobile this month, Dr. B.J. Fogg of Stanford University said much the same thing. To achieve target behavior, you must have three things:

1. Motivation: three factors: a) Instant gratification or instant pain. b) Anticipation of pleasure or pain. (hope or fear) c) Social acceptance vs. social rejection.
2. Ability (simplicity): six elements: a) time, b) money, c) physical effort, d) brain cycles, e) Social deviance, f) non-routine.
3. Trigger. Facebook is especially good at triggering. Do it right now.

By and large, mobile phone manufacturers, software manufacturers, and mobile operators are very big on including every possible feature and are reasonably good at selling the features. But very few (if any) are good at getting people to use the features. If the feature isn’t one of the two (okay, I’ll allow three) things that I bought the phone for, you have to motivate me to use it, make it easy for me to do, and provide an opportunity or trigger for me to do it.

Masthead

This is issue #32 of Going Mobile. The stories that I refer to are all among the 200+ publicly published articles I scan each week, but the commentary is entirely my own and does not represent the views, opinions, or official position of Microsoft or the Windows Mobile management team or any of the sites or companies referenced herein. You can refer stories to me or make other comments below. I'd like to make this better each week.